EI Niño hascontinued decaying during the first quarter of 2016. The eastern tropicalPacific sea surface temperatures have cooled gradually from September, 2015 toApril, 2016 based on the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) andthe predicted temperature datasets of Beijing Climate Center Climate SystemModel version 1.1 (BCC_CSM1.1)  ensemble forecast results (See Figure 5.1).

厄尔尼诺在2016年第一季度继续呈现衰减态势，根据最优插值海表温度观测数据集（OISST）和北京气候中心气候系统模式版本1.1集合预报数据集（BCC_CSM1.1）（见图5.1），热带太平洋东部海水温度自2015年9月至2016年4月逐渐降低。

After May2016, the middle and eastern Pacific Ocean temperature return to averageconditions according to the China MeteorologicalAdministration (CMA) (http://www.scio.gov.cn/xwfbh/gbwxwfbh/xwfbh/qxj/Document/1473467/1473467.htm).Additional information about OISST and BCC-CSM1.1 m ensemble forecast datasets,is available from http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/pred/cn_enso.php?FromYear=2016&FromMonth=5&Elem=SSTA_Patterns&Search=%BF%AA%CA%BC%BC%EC%CB%F7&product=cn_enso_ncc&source_from=

据中国气象局报道，从2016年5月开始，太平洋中部和东部的海水温度回归至平均水平（http://www.scio.gov.cn/xwfbh/gbwxwfbh/xwfbh/qxj/Document/1473467/1473467.htm）。有关OISST和BCC-CSM1.1 m两种数据集的介绍请参考以下链接（http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/pred/cn_enso.php?FromYear=2016&FromMonth=5&Elem=SSTA_Patterns&Search=%BF%AA%CA%BC%BC%EC%CB%F7&product=cn_enso_ncc&source_from=）

Figure 5.2 illustrates the behavior of theSouthern Oscillation Index (SOI) of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)from April 2015 to April 2016. During the current season, SOI has kept at agenerally low value range: -19.7 in January and February, -22.0 in April, witha peak at -4.7 in March. Eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures havecooled significantly in the past fortnight since April 26, and are nowapproaching neutral levels.

图5.2阐述了2015年4月至2016年4月澳大利亚气象局发布的南方涛动指数的变化情况。在这一时段内，南方涛动指数总体上位于低值区间：1月和2月份为-19.7，4月份为-22.0，在3月份达到峰值-4.7。从4月26日往前的14天内，热带太平洋东部的海水表面温度下降明显，目前已接近中性水平。

According to NOAA (https://www.climate.gov/enso)El Niño is still ongoing and is expected to continue through north hemispherespring or early summer. The heat content in the central Pacific decreased belowaverage in March for the first time in a year. 

根据美国国家海洋和大气局（https://www.climate.gov/enso）报道，厄尔尼诺现象还在继续，将会持续至北半球的春季和夏初季节，与此同时，也监测到近1年来，太平洋中部海水热量在3月份第一次降低到平均水平以下。

In the meantime, BOM and NOAA both issued a La Niña warning:conditions are favorable for La Niña to emerge within 6 months. In the next few months, CropWatch willkeep a close eye on the development of El Niño, La Niña and the regions thatshown sensitivity to this event.

与此同时，澳大利亚气象局和美国国家海洋和大气局均给出了拉尼娜警告：在未来6个月内拉尼娜的形成条件将日趋成熟。接下来，CropWatch将会对厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜和受影响地区进行持续关注。