3.1 Overview

Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 42 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns.

1. Introduction

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro- ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well.

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 166 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

2. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans in a group of just 20 countries, conventionally taken as the major exporters, with each of them exporting at least one million tons of the covered commodities. They include the top 10 exporters in the world, with the United States and Argentina exporting all four crops, and Brazil, Ukraine and Russia exporting three of them each.

Maize: Maize exports are dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina and the Ukraine. Together, they supply three quarters of maize being traded internationally. In South America, this reporting period covered the grainfilling period of late (2nd crop) maize and its harvest. Conditions in all South American maize production regions tended to be on the dry side, which provided good conditions for harvest. However, soil moisture conditions in Parana, Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul were drier than usual in April and May, which may have negatively impacted yields. In general, a high production can be expected, mainly due to increased acreage.

In the USA, weather conditions for maize were generally favorable. Spring was somewhat on the wet and cooler side, but the CropWatch indicators had reached positive territory by July. Planting was delayed in some areas of North and South Dakota due to cool and wet conditions. A powerful storm, called Derecho, hit Iowa on August 10, 2020. Its highest measured wind speed was 203 km/h. It affected about 6 million ha, or half of Iowa's cropland. Many maize fields got flattened, but it is too early to accurately assess the impact on maize yields.

Maize in Europe largely benefitted from rather favorable conditions for maize production. No periods with prolonged excessive heat were reported and rainfall during May, June and July was close to average, although rather on the dry side, especially in France and Germany.

In Ethiopia and East Africa, maize keeps benefitting from above average rainfall. However, locusts continue to cause crop damage in some hot spots.

In China, maize was off to a good start, helped by the generally above-average precipitation and favorable temperatures.

Rice: Four out of the 5 top rice exporting countries are located in South and Southeast Asia: India supplies about 1/3 of the rice that is internationally traded, followed by Thailand with 1/5. The USA, number 3, supplies less than 10%. Vietnam contributes about 7% and Pakistan close to 6%.

Southeast Asia, with a combined market share of a bit more than 25%, was still suffering from the prolonged drought that caused record low water levels in the Mekong river. This in return hampered irrigated rice production during the dry season. The rainy season was off to a slow start in May, however, rains reached average levels by July. Crop conditions in all of mainland Southeast Asia had recovered to average levels by the end of July. Excessive monsoon rainfall caused wide-spread flooding in Bangladesh and Eastern India, especially in Bihar and Assam. It remains to be seen what the impact on yields will be, since rice can tolerate short periods of submergence. In other parts of India, as well as in Pakistan, abundant monsoon rains caused generally favorable conditions for rice production.

Wheat: This monitoring period covers the sowing of wheat in the Southern Hemisphere. Conditions were favorable in Argentina, South of Brazil, Cape Province of South Africa, and Southeast Australia. However, drier-than-normal conditions prevailed in Southwest Australia.

Most winter wheat sown in the Northern Hemisphere reached maturity by May, June or July. Spring wheat harvest typically starts in August. Conditions in the USA and Canada were generally favorable. The cool temperatures in the spring caused favorable conditions for yield formation. There were a couple of frost events in April and early May in the USA, but damage was limited. Precipitation was favorable, except for the western region of the Great Plains (Colorado and Oklahoma), where conditions were drier than normal.

In Europe, conditions were very wet during the planting season last fall, especially in the UK. Warmer winter temperatures caused an early spring green-up, followed by dry and sunny weather until the end of April. This caused a depletion of soil moisture in France, Germany and the UK. Subsequent rains were close to average, but they came too late and were not sufficient to help fully compensate for the yield losses. Similarly, dry conditions in March and April in Romania and the Ukraine caused significant yield losses for winter wheat. Conditions were more favorable for most of Russia. Spring wheat in Kazakhstan was off to a good start, but drier-than-normal conditions in July caused moisture stress in some regions.

Morocco and the other nations in the Maghreb suffered from drought conditions during the winter months. This caused crop failures in Morocco, especially in the south. In the other Maghreb countries, significant yield losses for rainfed wheat occurred.

In India and Pakistan, where wheat was harvested in late March and April, the crop benefitted from abundant moisture and generally favorable weather conditions. However, untimely rainfall in April caused some delays in harvest and may also have negatively impacted grain quality.

Winter wheat in the North China Plain reached maturity in late May/early June. The area increased in the region from last year. Higher rainfall may have increased the disease pressure and solar radiation was also reduced. Moreover, the region experienced a few hot days in early May, during which temperatures reached close to 40°C.

Soybean: In the southern hemispheres, most of the soybean had been harvested by March and were covered in the May CropWatch bulletin. In the USA, Canada and the Ukraine, conditions for soybean production have been favorable so far. Slightly cooler-than-normal conditions prevailed in North America until May, which delayed growth and development. Subsequently, the conditions for soybean improved to above average and high yields can be expected. In the Ukraine, conditions are generally favorable and same production levels as last year can be expected. Conditions for soybean production in China have been favorable so far, mainly due to above-average rainfall.

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of April to July 2020 total relative to the 2005-2019 average (15YA), in percent

Figure 3.2 National and subnational temperatute anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of April to July 2020 average relative to the 2005-2019 average (15YA), in °C

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of April to July 2020 total relative to the 2005-2019 average (15YA), in percent

Figure 3.4 National and subnational bionass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of April to July 2020 total relative to the 2005-2019 average (15YA), in percent