During this reporting period, the harvest of summer crops (maize, soybean, and rice) was almost concluded except for maize in north-eastern regions. Wheat was sown in April to May and was approaching peak growth in July. Overall crop conditions in Brazil remained close to average compared to the previous five years.

Agro-climatic indicators present generally close to average conditions with 0.1°C higher temperature and 1% above average RADPAR while rainfall was 4% lower compared with the 15YA. Slightly below-average rainfall resulted in a 1% reduction of potential biomass. Although agro-climatic indicators remained close to average, significant departures were observed among different states of Brazil ranging from -45% in Sao Paulo to +33% in Piaui. Diversified accumulated rainfall was also presented among states with largest rainfall at 1358 mm in Amapa and least rainfall at 174 mm in Sao Paulo. Largest rainfall departure from the 15YA was also observed in Rio Grande Do Norte, Bahia and Sergipe with 22%, 24% and 26% above average, respectively. Mato Grosso Do Sul and Rio De Janeiro suffered from water shortage with 29% and 27% less rainfall, respectively. Radiation departures among the provinces ranged from -6% in Bahia to +11% in Parana. Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso Do Sul, and Santa Catarina also presented larger than 5% positive departures of radiation. According to the national rainfall profiles, the 10-days accumulations of rainfall also show overall average conditions except for the period from early April to early May. Temperature was overall close to average for all states. Large negative departures of BIOMSS occurred in Distrito Federal, Goias and Minas Gerais, by -11%, -8% and -7% respectively, as a result of below average rainfall, temperature, and radiation. Above-average radiation in Mato Grosso Do Sul, Santa Catarina, Alagoas, Parana, and Sao Paulo benefitted the biomass accumulation and resulted in positive deviations by more than 5% from the 15YA. For more detailed information, it is recommended to visit CropWatch Explore 

(http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm?language=en).

The crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Brazil presents slightly below-average values which recovered to average by late June. According to the NDVI departure clustering maps and profiles, below-average conditions were mostly located in Southern Brazil including Sao Paulo, Rio Grande Do Sul, Parana, Santa Catarina, and Mato Grosso Do Sul. The below-average NDVI could be attributed to the lower rainfall since the beginning of the year as the similar pattern was observed in the rainfall departure map at state level (Figure h). Scattered areas within the regions mentioned above show relatively low VCIx values (below 0.8), which confirmed the unfavorable crop conditions. Northeast Brazil including Nordeste, and northern part of East Coast presented above-average crop conditions throughout the monitoring period, thanks to the above-average rainfall (Figure h). Most other areas showed generally close-to-average NDVI compared with the previous five years. The bar graph showing the proportion of different categories of crop condition indicates that the above-average conditions accounted for more than 20% to 35% of the area during the monitoring period while the percentage of below-average conditions was less than 20%. In late June to early July, the proportion of above-average crops reached the lowest point but with limited impact on crop production since most summer crops were already harvested. As shown in figure g, drought conditions generally stayed at below 20% when severe, moderate, and minor drought were considered. Above-average rainfall since mid-May also eased the drought conditions as indicated by the decreasing trend of the percentage of cropland affected by drought. National VCIx is 0.92 and CALF is 1% above average. Cropland is almost 100% cultivated. Several non-major agricultural producing states in the northeast presented above 1.0 VCIx, which benefited from favorable agro-climatic conditions. Five agricultural states in southern Brazil showed VCIx at levels below 0.9, which coincided with the below-average condition presented in the NDVI departure clustering map. All in all, crop conditions in Brazil were close to average and CropWatch estimates close to avearge outputs for soybean and maize. It is also noteworthy that the above-average radiation at the end of the monitoring period is favorable for the drying and harvest of the crops in the southern states (Figure i).

Regional analysis

Considering the differences of cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. These include the Central Savanna, the east coast, Parana river, Amazon zone, Mato Grosso zone, Southern subtropical rangelands, mixed forest, and farmland, and the Nordeste. Four zones received average rainfall, including Southern subtropical rangelands, Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, Amazonas, and Coast zones. Central Savanna (+20%) and Nordeste (+26%) received significant above average rainfall, while Parana Basin (-19%) and Mato Grosso (-9%) zone suffered from water shortage. The prolonged dry conditions in the Parana Basin and Mato Grosso zone was observed since the starting of the season in October of last year which hampered crop development and resulted in lower production. Parana Basin was also the zone with largest positive departure of radiation. Sunny weather further worsened the drought situations. Temperature for all eight zones was close to average with largest departure for the Northeastern mixed forest and farmland at 0.4°C above average. Large BIOMSS departures were found in Central Savanna (-3%) and Southern subtropical rangelands (+4%) when compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS for the other zones generally stayed at close to average levels.

Favorable agro-climatic conditions in Nordeste, and Central Savanna resulted in significant above-average crop conditions as indicated by the NDVI-based crop development profiles in the two zones. Rice and late maize were the major crops grown during this monitoring period and the harvests were almost concluded by July. Due to favorable climatic conditions, cropped arable land fraction (CALF) in those two zones were 7% and 3% above the 5YA while all the other six zones remain at the 5YA level. VCIx of Nordeste was the highest among the zones, exceeded 1.0 and reached 1.06 indicating that crop conditions were better than during the the last five years. Rice and maize production are expected to be up from the 5YA.

Average or close-to-average crop conditions were observed in Amazon, Coast, Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, and Mato Grosso zones. Among those four zones, Mato Grosso is the only major agricultural zone with soybean and maize as the dominant crops. The First Maize and Soybean crops were already harvested by April while the harvesting of the Second Maize is still ongoing. Agro-climatic conditions generally remained at average levels except for Mato Grosso where a rainfall deficit was observed. Irrigation of the second season crop helped reduce the negative impact of drier-than-normal conditions on crop growth. Second maize output is projected at average levels.

NDVI was significantly below average according to the NDVI-based development profiles in Parana basin, and Southern subtropical rangelands. The same phenomenon was reported in the previous bulletin mainly due to the continuous water shortages. During the current monitoring period, wheat is still in its early development, reaching heading stages in July, while most summer crops have been harvested already. The outputs of main maize and soybean in Parana basin are estimated at below-average levels. The continuously dry and hot weather in Southern subtropical rangelands adversely affected the sowing and growing stages of wheat as shown by delayed NDVI peak in early July which was supposed to have been reached one month earlier (Figure q). Wheat production is projected to be below average compared with the 5YA.

Figure 3.11. Brazil's crop condition, April - July 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Brazil

(c) Rainfall profile_Brazil

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure profiles

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) Proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with 5YA from April to July 2020

(g) Proportion of different drought categories from April to July 2020

(h) Rainfall departure from 15YA in percentage for each state

(i) PAR departure from 15YA in percentage for each state

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Amazon

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(L) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of East Coast

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(n) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(o) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Northeastern mixed forest and farmland

(p) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana Basin

(q) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

Table 3.13  Brazil agro-climatic and agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from average, April - July 2020

Table 3.14 Brazil’s agronomic indicators by regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2020