The current monitoring period covers the harvest of rabi rice and wheat in April and May, as well as the sowing of maize, kharif rice and soybean. The graph of NDVI development indicates that the crop conditions for rabi rice and wheat were favorable. Crop conditions were generally above average and even above the 5-year maximum during this reporting period, as indicated by the graph of NDVI development at the national level.

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that nationwide TEMP and RADPAR were close to average (-0.5 °C and -1%, respectively). India recorded abundant RAIN (+15%) after May, which exceeded the 15-year average for the same monitoring period, resulting in a BIOMSS increase by 11% compared with 15YA. Moreover, the overall VCIx was high, with a value of 1.05. As can be seen from the spatial distribution, only the South, Northeast and Northwest recorded values below 0.80. Most of India had high values in VCIx. These spatial patterns of VCIx were thus generally consistent with those of NDVI. Almost all areas experienced continuously above-average crop conditions until June. In July, 63% of the areas recorded below-average crop conditions in the Southwest and Northeast regions due to the heavy precipitation. CALF increased by 12% compared to 5YA. Crop production for this season is estimated to be above average. 

The sown area of early spring crops in India  increased by 9% from the same period last year. However, in May, India was affected by a second wave of locust plagues and some areas were hit by floods as well.  Floods  occured mainly in the northeastern region which hampered crop conditions.

Regional analysis 

India is divided into eight agro-ecological zones: the Deccan Plateau (94), the Eastern coastal region (95), the Gangetic plain (96), Assam and north-eastern regions (97), Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (98), the Western coastal region (99), the North-western dry region (100) and the Western Himalayan region(101).

The four agro-ecological zones of the Deccan Plateau, the Gangetic plain, Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat, and the North-western dry region show similar trends in agricultural indices. Compared to the same period of previous years, RAIN had increased significantly, especially in the Gangetic plain (more than +30%). Although TEMP and RADPAR were lower, abundant rainfall compensated for their effects and caused BIOMSS to be much higher than the 15-year average. However, CALF showed different trends. The highest increases had been observed for the Deccan Plateau and agricultural areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (more than +18%). The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop growth of these four agro-ecological regions during this monitoring period exceeded the 5-year maximum in most months. Generally, the crop production is expected to be above average.

The Eastern coastal region and the Western coastal region recorded similar trends of agricultural indices in this monitoring period. Compared to the same period of previous years, RAIN had increased, especially for the Eastern coastal region (+25%). TEMP was slightly below average (-0.5°C) in the Eastern coastal region and near average (+0.4°C) in the Western coastal region.  RADPAR was lower, but BIOMSS still increased. Both regions recorded increases of CALF (+16% and +19%, respectively). VCIx was higher than 1.02. The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop growth for the two regions exceeded the 5-year average. The crop production is expected to be above average.

The Assam and Northeastern region recorded 2250.6 mm of RAIN (+14%), with lower average TEMP at 23.9°C (-0.5°C) and RADPAR of 1051.5 MJ/m² (-7%). BIOMSS was below the 5YA (-9%). Increased rainfall was not enough to compensate for reduced temperature and sunshine. CALF reached 95% which was as average, and VCIx was 0.92. The outlook of crop production in this region is unfavorable due to the heavy precipitation.

The Western Himalayan region recorded 343 mm of RAIN (-40% below average), with lower average TEMP at 19.1°C (-1.3°C) and RADPAR of 1461 MJ/m² (+1%). The BIOMSS was higher than the average (+3%) due to more sunshine. CALF reached 98% and VCIx was 0.86. Crop condition as assessed by NDVI was above the 5-year average and even exceeded the 5-year maximum in April to May. Therefore, crop production conditions are favorable.

Figure 3.20. India's crop condition, April - July 2020

                                                (a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   

 (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

                (f) Rainfall profiles                                               (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Deccan Plateau (left) and Eastern Coastal Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Gangetic Plains (left) and Assam and north-eastern regions (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (left) and Western Coastal Region (right))

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North-western dry region (left) and Western Himalayan Region (right))

Table 3.31. India’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April -  July 2020

 Table 3.32. India’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2020