Kenya has a short- a long-rain season. The long-rain crops (mostly maize and wheat) are planted from March to April to be harvested in October and November.  For this reporting period, the national total rainfall was recorded at 838 mm, which is above the 15YA by 41%. Both the temperature (TEMP, -0.5 ºC) and RADPAR (-4%) were below average. Estimated biomass production was 4% below the 15YA. The cropped arable land fraction remained constant and CALF increased by 5%. The NDVI development graph at the national level stayed above average during the entire monitoring period. According to the NDVI clusters and the map of NDVI profiles, 90.7% of the country experienced favorable crop conditions from April – July. The spatial NDVI patterns indicate that NDVI was above average in  the central areas. This spatial pattern was only partially reflected by VCIx. Its national average had reached 0.99. It was slightly lower in the pastoral areas of the Rift Valley (Laikipia, Nakuru, and Trans-Nzioia), where wheat is an important crop, but also in some western areas, for instance in Bungoma, where maize and cattle are the main-stays of the agricultural economy. All in all, the conditions were favorable.

Regional analysis

Considering the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions we divided this country into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): The Coast, Highland agriculture zone, Northern rangelands, and Southwest.

Coast

The Coast includes the districts of Kilifi, Kwale, and Malindi. During this reporting period the total amount of rainfall was 302 mm, 9% below average. This led to a slight drop in total biomass production (-3%). The temperature (+0.1°C) and RADPAR (-1%) were near average.  The Cropped arable land fraction increased by 2%. The NDVI-based crop condition development was above average in the first part and then dropped to below average in June and July. The maximum VCI was 1.01. Overall, the coastal area had favorable conditions for livestock and crops.

Highland agriculture zone

In this zone, the total rainfall during the reporting period was recorded at 897mm,   44%  above average, whereas the temperature was below average (-0.4 ºC).  Estimated biomass production decreased by 4%.  The maximum VCIx value was recorded at 0.99. The NDVI‐based Crop condition development graph shows that the NDVI profile was above the five years average during the entire monitoring period. Moreover, large parts of the arable land in this region have high VCIx values, indicating good crop conditions. Overall, crop conditions were favorable for this region.

Northern rangelands

The Northern rangeland covers the districts Turkana, Samburu, and Baringo.  Rainfall (+53%) was above average, wheras temperatures  (-0.4 ºC) and solar radiation (-4%) were slightly below the 15YA. As a result, estimated biomass (-3%) was also slightly lower.  The NDVI development curve stayed above the average of the last 5 years.  The maximum VCI was at  1.06. The cropped arable land fraction rose by 25%.  This region is mainly used by pastoralists. Conditions for livestock production were favorable. 

South-west

The South-west districts include Kisumu, Migori, Siaya, and Busia. These districts are major producers of wheat and maize. In the costal area, the total amount of rainfall was high at 1375 mm (+44%). The other parameters, temperature (-1.1 ºC), RADPAR (-3%) and the estimated biomass (-9%) were below average.  The Cropped arable land fraction remained constant.  The NDVI development curve was above the 5YA throughout this monitoring period.  The maximum observed VCI was 0.95. Overall, conditions are assessed as favorable.

Figure 3.24. Kenya's crop condition, April ‐ July 2020.

                                                           (a). Phenology of major crops

  (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI              (c) Maximum VCI

 (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                          (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall                                                                              (g) Temperature

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (east coast (right) and Highland agriculture zone (left)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern region with sparse vegetation(right) Southwest of Kenya(left)

Table 3.39. Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values, and departure
from 15YA, April ‐July 2020.

Table 3.40. Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values, and departure
from 5YA, April ‐July 2020