This monitoring period covers the pre-monsoon and beginning of the monsoon season in Myanmar.  Harvesting of maize was completed in April, while the second rice (summer rice) was harvested between April and June. The planting of main rice (monsoon rice) started in May to June. However, the planting period varies according to region and weather conditions. 

RAIN (-18%) was considerably lower than the 15YA, whereas TEMP (+0.4ºC) and RADPAR (+4%) were above the 15YA. Potential cumulative biomass (BIOMSS) was close to average (+1%).  28.8% of cropland showed a positive NDVI departure, mostly located in the Delta and Southern Coast region including Yangon, Bago, Ayeyarwady, part of Magwe, Sagaing, Thanintaryi and Shan State during June and July. Only 9.6% of the cropland, mainly in the Hills regions showed a negative NDVI departure throughout the monitoring period. The VCIx was less than 0.5 in the central dry zone. Higher values were observed in the other regions. There were large differences among the regions and the conditions vary from below average (Central Plain) to favorable (Delta and Southern Coast).

Regional analysis

Three sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are the Central plain, the Hills and the Delta and Southern Coast regions.

The Central Plain had a rainfall deficit (RAIN -35%), while TEMP (+ 0.8ºC) and RADPAR (+7%) were above the 15YA. The resulting BIOMSS was higher than the 15YA by 4%, which was the largest departure among the three sub-national regions.  CALF (76%) was far away from full utilization, and 8% below the 5YA. NDVI was slightly below the 5YA level during the whole period. The crop condition is assessed as below the 5YA level. 

The Hills region had the highest RAIN (1473 mm) compared with the other two sub-national regions, but it was 4% below the 15YA, while TEMP was close to average and RADPAR was increased by 2%. As a result, the BIOMSS was at the same level as the 15YA. The cropland was almost fully used (CALF 95%). The development of NDVI was better than in the other regions and reached average levels in June. The VCIx was 0.92. The crop condition for this region is normal.

The Delta and Southern Coast region experienced a dry pre-monsoon season, with RAIN (-41%) far below the 15YA. TEMP and RADPAR increased by 0.7ºC and 6%, respectively. BIOMSS was slightly higher (+1%) than the 15YA. The vast majority of cropland in this region is irrigated. Therefore, the lack of rainfall had a limited negative impact on crop growth and NDVI development. CALF was 14% above the 5YA and VCIx at 1.02. Hence, crop conditions in this region can be assessed as favorable. 

Figure 3.30 Myanmar crop condition, April-July 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Rainfall Profile

(d) Temperature Profile

(e)  Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) in Myanmar

(f)  Spatial NDVI patterns compared to %5YA

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in central plain region

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in hills region

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in delta and southern coast region

Table 3.51 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2020

Table 3.52 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April  - July 2020