The current period from April to the end of July was marked by the start of the rainy season in April. In the South, the harvest of maize took place, as well as the planting of rainfed and irrigated rice. In the north, the sowing of cereals like millet, sorghum and maize started in May. Security, hampering crop production, is still a challenge for the northern part of the country. 

At the national level, precipitation was 24% below the 15YA. Average temperatures were 0.5°C above the 5YA and radiation was also 2% higher. As a result, biomass production potential was slightly higher (+1%). Cropped land was reduced by 4%, and the vegetation condition was at 0.83. NDVI fell below the 5YA starting in June. Crop conditions are unfavorable.

Regional analysis

The analysis covers the four main agro-ecological zones; zone sudano-sahel in the north which is the driest zone, Guinea savanna and derived savanna zone in the center and the humid forest zone in the south.

In the north, The Sudano-Sahelian zone recorded a reduction of 54% in rainfall, with a 0.7°C increase in temperature and average radiation as compared to the 15YA. These conditions bring the biomass to 643 gDM/m2 (-1% of departure from 15YA). Cropped land amounted to 50%, a 9% decrease while the VCIx was at 75. The NDVI graph shows that the NDVI values were slightly above the average till mid-May when they dropped to below-average levels. By the end of July, they were back to the 5YA.

 For the Guinean savanna, precipitation dropped by 40% from the 15 YA, temperature increased by 0.6°C and radiation up by 2%. Consequently, the biomass was 767 gDM/m2 (+ 2%). In this period the cropped land was reduced by -4% from 15YA. Vegetation condition index was at 0.85. On the NDVI development graph, the values were close to average until late May, when they started to drop to below average levels, indicating unfavorable conditions.

 For the Derived savanna, rain was reduced by 29%, temperature increased by 0.5°C and the radiation was also higher (+3%) as compared to the 15 YA. These agro-climatic conditions resulted in an increase of potential biomass by 3%. The cropped land area was reduced by 2%, and the vegetation condition index was at 0.90. Vegetation conditions were relatively good till May when the NDVI profile graph started to sharply drop.

In the south, humid forest zone rainfall was 4% below the 15YA. Temperature was 0.2°C warmer and the radiation was 2% above the 15YA. These indicators increased the biomass by 2% and the cropped land fraction (CALF) was 99% with zero departure from 5YA. The vegetation condition index (VCIx) was at 0.95. As in the other regions, the NDVI profile started to drop to below-average levels in May.

Figure 3.33 Nigeria’s crop condition, April - July 2020 

a)   Phenology of main Crop

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI            (c) Maximum VCI

         (d) Rainfall index                                                                   (e) Temperature index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                    (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Soudano‐Sahelian region (left) and Guinean savanna (right))

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (derived Savanna (left) and Humid forest zone (right)

Table 3.57 Nigeria’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April 2020 - July 2020

Table 3.58 Nigeria’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2020