This reporting period covers the harvest of winter wheat and the planting of summer maize and rice. Crop conditions were generally favorable. 

At the country level, RAIN was 8% above average, while TEMP (-1.2 °C) and RADPAR (-3%) were below. The combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in BIOMSS exceeding the 15YA by 18%. Precipitation varied greatly in time and space. Local heavy rainfall caused floods and unfavorable conditions during the harvest period of wheat, for instance in Karachi and Pakhtunkhwa. About 20% of the crop areas experienced drought caused by insufficient rainfall in July, as shown in the VHIm graph. So far, summer maize and rice have benefited from the generally favorable weather conditions, and the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) increased significantly by 9% compared with 5YA, which may have a postive effect on the summer crop production. 

At the national level, the NDVI development graphs indicated favorable conditions during the previous reporting period, which continued in this period until the end of June, when they started to drop to below average levels, presumably due to a rainfall deficit starting in June. The spatial NDVI patterns and profiles show that 69% of the cropped areas were average or above average, whereas only 7% were consistently below average during the monitoring period. The below average areas were scattered throughout the country and not concentrated in any particular region. However, the trends showed a general decrease in July for 46% of the crop areas. The sowing of maize benefitted from favorable conditions in Punjab. The Indus river basin (the rice producing areas) has reached average or above average NDVI after transplanting in June. Though below-average crop conditions were observed in the three main agricultural areas in July, above-average rainfall in the Northern Highland (+22%) and Punjab (+30%) regions, together with irrigation of lower Indus river basin might help sustain favorable crop conditions for the remainder of the growing season. 

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Northern highlands, Northern Punjab region and the Lower Indus river basin in South Punjab and Sind.

The NDVI development graph of Northern highlands shows above average crop condition from April to early July. RAIN was 22% above average. RADPAR and TEMP were below average (-4% and -1.9°C respectively) between April and July. The resulting BIOMSS exceeded the fifteen-year average by 2%. The region achieved a rather low CALF of 63%, but it is a large increase by 14% over the 5YA and  VCIx is 1.04.  Wheat conditions were satisfactory but the harvest may have suffered from heavy rainfall or storms; weather was generally favorable for the establishment of maize. 

The Northern Punjab, the main agricultural region in Pakistan recorded abundant RAIN (30% above average). TEMP was below average by 1.9°C, and the RADPAR departure was -2%. The estimated BIOMSS departure of +14% as compared to the fifteen-year average is probably not so relevant, since this period covers the harvest of wheat and the establishment of maize and rice crops. Wheat had above average NDVI values during the entire growth period, which resulted in high yields. Together with the large VCIx (0.89) and high CALF (79% with an increase of 13%), crop conditions are favorable. 

In the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind, RAIN was above average by 13%, while RADPAR and TEMP were below average by -2% and 0.4°C respectively. Estimated BIOMSS was 35% higher than the last fifteen-year average. The VCIx was at 0.88, which is normal for this period between  the harvest of wheat and the establishment of the new crops. Considering that the vast majority of land in this region is irrigated, prospects for the newly established crops are promising.  CALF was rather low (43%), but still  5% higher than  5YA,  which indicates an increase in production due to a larger area planted.

Figure  3.34  Pakistan's crop condition, April-July, 2020

(a).Phenology of major crops

(b). Pakistan national level crop-condition development graph based on NDVI(left) and time series temperature profile, comparing the April-July 2020 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

(c). Maximum VCI     

(d). Pakistan spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2020 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

(e). crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Lower Indus river basin (Pakistan)

(f).Northern Highland (Pakistan)(right) Northern Punjab crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left)   

(g). Proporation of VHIm categories compared with 5YA

Table3.59. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2020

Table3.60. Pakistan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure  from 5YA, April-July 2020