The reporting period covers the sowing to early harvesting stage of main maize and the sowing to early growth stage of main rice. The harvest for the second maize was concluded by the end of May and for the second rice by the end of April. The NDVI for the country was below average until late June and close to average in July. The maximum departure for NDVI from average was in the middle of May. Generally, crop conditions in the Philippines were close to or below average compared to the previous five years.

Compared to the average values of the past 15 years, the precipitation (RAIN, -16%) for the country was lower and the temperatures (TEMP, +0.5℃)  were slightly warmer. However, the radiation (RADPAR, +6%)  was higher than the average of the previous 15 years. The variation of values for agro-climatic indicators mentioned above resulted in an above-average potential biomass production (BIOMASS, +6%). At the same time, the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) for the country was almost 100% and the maximum VCI value was at 0.96.

According to spatial patterns of NDVI profiles, about 47.3% of the crop land, mainly located in the area of the west of Luzon island, the south of Mindoro and the north of Naga, had a stable NDVI, which was close to average conditions. For around 30.4% of the crop land, NDVI decreased before May and increased gradually after that time. This was mainly in the middle of Luzon island and the middle of Mindanao island. The NDVI there was lower than average before the end of June and it was higher than average in July. An anomaly for the NDVI was observed in some scattered areas, about 8.8% of the crop land, which dropped dramatically up to 0.4 NDVI units in early May but recovered before June. This drop was due to cloud cover as shown in the satellite images. From the maximum VCI graph, most parts of the country had a high maximum VCI value (VCIX > 0.8), however, about 52.7% of the crop land experienced a sub-average NDVI for most of the time. So the prospected production of maize and second rice is close to or below average.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three main agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for the Philippines. They are the Lowlands region (northern islands), the Hilly region (Island of Bohol, Sebu and Negros), and the Forest region (mostly southern and western islands). All the regions had a stable (almost 100%) cropped arable land fraction and a high maximum VCI value (VCIx>0.94).

The Lowlands region experienced above-average temperature (TEMP +0.5℃), radiation (RADPAR, +7%) and potential biomass production (BIOMASS, +6%). However, the rainfall (RAIN, -22%) for the region was below average. As the NDVI profile shows, the NDVI was lower than average before the end of May and it was close to average in June. The above-average NDVI values in July indicate that the main rice experienced favorable conditions.  

Compared to the previous 15 years, the Negros and central Visayas Islands region experienced less precipitation (RAIN, -9%), relatively higher temperatures (TEMP, +0.6℃) and above-average radiation (RADPAR, +5%). The potential biomass production (BIOMASS, +5%) for the region was higher than the 15YA. The regional maximum VCI value (VCIx) was at 0.99. According to the NDVI profile, the NDVI for the region was close to average before the middle of April and then it was below average for most of the time except for the early July when NDVI was close to average as well. Considering the regional NDVI, the prospected production of main maize and the crop condition of main rice are below average.

The Forest region had an above-average temperature (TEMP, +0.4°C) and above-average radiation (RADPAR, +5%). The potential biomass production (BIOMASS) for the region was above average by 5% and the rainfall (RAIN, -11%) was lower than average. The NDVI profiles for the region show that it was close to average before the middle of April and it was below average after that time. The maximum departure of NDVI from average condition appeared in the middle of May and it was close to 0 during July, which means the production of second maize in this region was below average and the crop conditions of the main maize and the main rice were stable and close to average.

Figure 3.35 Philippines’ crop condition, April - July 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI     (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA      (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series temperature profile (left) and rainfall profile (right)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lowlands region (left) and Hills region (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Forest Region)

Table 3.61 Philippines' agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April- July 2020

Table 3.62 Philippines' agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA/5YA, April - July, 2020