In Russia, the period from April to July is the time of active crop growth. At the end of July, winter crops are harvested in many regions, while spring crops reach the peak of their growth.

NDVI was equal to its 5-year average until mid-May. From mid-May and mid-June, it was at the level of the 5-year maximum, but by mid-July, it had dropped below the level of the previous year and the 5-year average.

During the period from April to June, rainfall was mainly above the 15-year average. From April to the beginning of June, rainfall exceeded the 15-year maximum. From mid-June to mid-July, the amount of precipitation was close to the 15-year average and mainly below the level of the previous year. By the end of July, rainfall exceeded the 15-year average and reached the level of the previous year.

From April to mid-June the temperature in Russia was close to the level of the previous year and the 15-year average. At the end of June, it fell below both these levels. At the beginning of July, temperature increased and reached the 15-year maximum. However, it dropped to the level of the previous year by the end of the month.

Main regions of winter crop production showed different NDVI departures and VCIx. South and North Caucasus showed mainly negative NDVI departure with VCIx varying from <0.5 to 0.8-1. Central and Central Black Soils region as well as Middle Volga showed mainly positive NDVI departure with VCIx from 0.8-1 to >1.

In the regions with positive NDVI departures the yield of winter crops is expected to be at the level of the previous year or above. While in the regions with negative NDVI departure, the yield of winter crops is likely to be below the level of the previous year. Overall, crop conditions are favorable.

Regional analysis

In South Caucasus region, rainfall was 2% below the 15-year average. Temperature decreased by 0.2 °C compared to the 15-year average. RADPAR was above the 15-year average by 1% and BIOMASS increased by 1%. VCIx was 0.96. CALF was at the level of the 5-year average (100%).

During this period, NDVI was mainly below the level of the previous year and the 5-year average.

The yield of winter crops is likely to be lower than in the previous year in this region.

In the North Caucasus, rainfall was below the 15-year average by 2%. The temperature was also below the 15-year average  (-0.7 °C). RADPAR decreased by 1%. Unfavorable agroclimatic conditions resulted in a decrease in BIOMASS value by 3%. VCIx was 0.84 - the lowest value for Russia. CALF was 4% below the 5-year average.

NDVI in the period from April to May was below the 5-year average and the value of the previous year. In early June, NDVI reached the 5-year average, but then dropped below the level of the previous year and the 5-year average.

The yield of winter crops is likely to be lower than in the previous year in this region.

In Central Russia, rainfall was above the 15-year average by 31%. The temperature decreased by 1.3 °C compared to the 15-year average. RADPAR decreased by 9% relative to the 15-year average. BIOMASS dropped by 14%. VCIx value was 0.98. CALF was at the level of the 5-year average (100%).

In April and May, NDVI was mainly below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year. In June, NDVI reached the 5-year average.

The yield of winter crops is expected to be close to or slightly above the level of the previous year.

Central Black Soils region experienced the highest rainfall, which was  36% above the 15-year average. The temperature decreased by 1.3 °C. RADPAR decreased by 6% relative to the 15-year average. BIOMASS decreased by 10% relative to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.99. CALF was equal to the 5-year average (100%).

In April and May, NDVI was equal to the level of the previous year and 5-year average. In June it increased and reached a 5-year maximum. In mid-July NDVI dropped below the 5-year average to the level of the previous year.

The yield of winter crops is likely to be slightly higher than in the previous year.

In Middle Volga region rainfall exceeded the 15-year average by 28%. Temperature was 0.8 °C below the 15-year average. RADPAR decreased by 3% compared to the 15-year average. BIOMASS decreased by 5%. VCIx was 0.93. CALF was at the level of the 5-year average (98%).

From mid-April to the end of May, NDVI stayed at the level of the previous year and the 5-year average. In June, it increased to the 5-year maximum. Then it dropped below the 5-year average.

The yield of winter crops is likely to be slightly higher than in the previous year.

In Ural and Western Volga region rainfall was above the 15-year average by 3%. Temperature exceeded the 15-year average by 0.4 °C. RADPAR was below the 15-year average by 1%. BIOMASS increased by 3%. VCIx was 0.87. CALF was at the level of the 5-year average (99%).

From April till mid-May NDVI was at the level of previous year and 5-year average. By the end of May it increased up to the 5-year maximum, which indicated that the vegetation progressed faster than in the previous year.

At the beginning of June NDVI came back to the level of the previous year and the 5-year average. Then it dropped below these levels.

The winter crops yield is expected to be lower than in the previous season.

In Western Siberia rainfall exceeded the 15-year average by 25%. Temperature was above the 15-year average by 1.2 °C. RADPAR was by 4% below the 15-year average. BIOMASS increased by 3%. VCIx was 0.87. CALF was at the level of the 5-year average (99 %).

From April till the end of May, NDVI was at the level of the 5-year maximum. Then it dropped to the level of the previous year and the 5-year average. In June and July, it stayed below the level of the previous year and the 5-year average.

The spring and summer crops status is likely to be worse than in the previous year.

In Middle Siberia, rainfall increased by 33% relative to the 15-year average. Temperature increased by 0.7 °C compared to the 15-year average. RADPAR was below 15-year average by 4%. BIOMASS decreased by 2%. VCIx was 0.92 and CALF increased by 4% relative to the 5-year average.

NDVI between April and May was equal to the 5-year average and the value of the previous year. It subsequently reached a 5-year maximum in July.

The status of spring and summer crops is close to the long-term average.

In Eastern Siberia, rainfall decreased by 9% relative to the 15-year average. Temperature was below the 5-year average by 0.4 °C. RADPAR decreased by 4% relative to the 15-year average. BIOMASS decreased by 8%. CALF was equal to 100%. VCIx was 0.98.

From April to May, NDVI value was below the level of the previous year, but equal to the 5-year average. In June and July, there were some fluctuations. NDVI stayed mainly below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year.

The spring and summer crops status is likely to be slightly below average.

Figure 3.38 Russia’s crop condition, April - July 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA               (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus (left) and Northern Caucasus (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia (left) and Central black soils area (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga (left) and Ural and western Volga region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Western Siberia (left) and the Middle Siberia (right)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Siberia)

(k) Rainfall index

(l) Temperature index

Table 3.67 Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April – July 2020

Table 3.68 Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April – July 2020