This monitoring period covers the sowing and growth of maize and rice, while the harvest of wheat was almost concluded by the end of July. Nationwide, RAIN was close to average (+1%), and both TEMP (-0.4℃) and RADPAR (-1%) were slightly below the 15YA. BIOMSS was 5% below the average. High temperatures in mid-May accelerated the maturity of winter crops and may have affected yield formation. 

The NDVI-based crop condition development graph indicates slightly below-average crop conditions during the whole monitoring period. The national average VCIx was 0.85.  The southeastern, southern, and western provinces, such as Sanliurfa, Mardin, and Adana, experienced very promising VCIx values above 1.0, indicating that crops in those regions outperformed the best recent conditions. Low VCIx (< 0.5), which indicates below average crop conditions, was mainly observed for the central provinces such as Ankara, Yozgat, and Kayseri. 

In terms of the NDVI spatial departure clustering map, the results confirmed the spatial pattern described above. Regarding the proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with the 5-year average, the first seven 16-day phases shared almost the same pattern. However,  the last phase had slightly below to below average anomalies in around 50% of the cropped areas. This might have been due  to heavy rainfall and the impact of local floods on the crops. As shown by the VHIn graph, some areas went through dry conditions in early April. Overall, most areas experienced favorable conditions throughout this monitoring period. Crop production is generally expected to be close to normal. 

Regional analysis 

The regional analysis includes four agro‐ecological zones (AEZ): the Black Sea area, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone.

In the Black Sea zone, crop conditions were generally below but close to average. The rainfall was slightly above average (RAIN, +3%), while the temperature (TEMP) decreased by 0.4℃. The cropped arable land fraction was 98%, 1% below average. The average value of VCIx was high at 0.9, the highest among all four AEZs of Turkey. The crop conditions are assessed to be close to normal.

During this monitoring period, the crop conditions were also close to average in the Central Anatolian plateau. This AEZ is the only one which experienced below-average rainfall (RAIN, -13%）during this monitoring period. TEMP (-0.3℃) and RADPAR (-1%) were both below the 15YA, resulting in a slight decrease of the BIOMSS index (-1%). The average VCIx for this region was 0.8. The cropped land area slightly decreased (CALF -2%). Crop conditions are assessed as slightly below average. 

In Eastern Anatolia, crop conditions were generally below average until late July. TEMP and RADPAR were 0.4℃ and 3% below the average, respectively, while the rainfall was above average (RAIN +10%). The relatively abundant rainfall led to the increase of biomass by 11%. The CALF increased slightly (+1%) compared to the average. With VCIx at 0.88, crop output is assessed to be average. 

As indicated by the NDVI profile, in the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone, the crop conditions were better than the 5YA during April, then slid to below average. RAIN was 3% above the average. The temperature was slightly below average (TEMP -0.5℃). VCIx was 0.89, and CALF is up 4%, which is the largest increase among the four AEZs. Production in this region is expected to be near average.

Figure 3.40 Turkey’s crop condition, April-July 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) rainfall index

(e) temperature index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                              (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Anatolia region)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region)

(l) Proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with 5YA

(m) Proportion of VHIm categories compared with 5YA

Table 3.71. Turkey's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2020

Table 3.72. Turkey's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April - July 2020