After a brief overview of the agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 then presents China's crop prospects (section 4.2), describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (section 4.3). Section 4.4 provides a closer look at the flooding impacts in the Lower Yangtze River Basin and section 4.5 describes trade prospects of major cereals and soybean. Additional information on the agro-climatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces is listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

Most of the summer crops, such as semi-late rice, spring maize and soybean, were in the field during the reporting period. The period also covered the harvest of early rice and winter crops, like winter wheat, and the sowing of late rice was gradually finished. The agro-climatic conditions were quite favorable, with rainfall slightly above average (+4%), temperature down 0.1°C and RADPAR down 2%. This was beneficial for crop growth and VCIx reached a high value of 0.91 at the national scale. 

According to the time series rainfall profile, above-average rainfall was observed nationwide from mid May to early July. Nearly all the main agricultural regions of China recorded above-average rainfall, with the largest positive departure occurring in South-west China (+16%). The only exception was Southern China (-16%). Excessive rainfall (positive departures by more than 20%) occured in the provinces through which the Yangtze River flows (Anhui, Chongqing, Hubei and Yunnan). The largest positive departure was observed in Anhui province (+57%), which increased the pressure on the upstream provinces to constrain the release of water as much as possible.  

Rainfall anomalies fluctuated largely over time and space. As can be seen from spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, 76.3% of cropped areas recorded relatively steady rainfall, with the rainfall departure within ±30mm. 13.2% of the cropped areas, mainly located in Southern China (Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan and some parts in Guangxi, Guizhou, Hunan, and Jiangxi), received significantly below-average rainfall (more than -50mm/dekad) during early May, middle to late June, and middle July. 10.5% of crops experienced the largest departure of rainfall (more than +200mm/dekad) during early July, essentially in some parts of Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces. 

Only two main agricultural regions in China recorded above-average temperature (Lower Yangtze region, +0.1°C; Southern China, +0.2°C), while the other regions all recorded below-average temperatures with negative departures ranging from -0.6°C to -0.2°C. Temperatures fluctuated during the monitoring period as follows: 72.5% of cultivated regions in southern parts and northern parts of China had positive temperature anomalies by more than 2.0°C, occurring in middle April and early May, while 27.5% of the cropped areas in central and eastern China experienced both positive temperature anomalies by more than 2.0°C in early June and negative anomalies by more than 3.0°C in middle July. RADPAR had the largest negative anomalies in Southwest China (-8%), and the biggest positive anomalies in Southern China (+5%), as a result of different rainfall situations during this monitoring period in these two regions.

As for BIOMSS, the situation was quite different among all the main producing regions, with the departures between -9% (Huanghuaihai, Loess region, and South-west China) and +6% (Southern China). CALF increased in the Loess region (+3%) and Inner Mongolia (+1%) as compared to the 5YA, indicating that the outlooks of crop production in these two regions are promising. The remaining regions all showed average CALF. The VCIx values were higher than 0.9 in almost all the main producing regions of China, with values between 0.91 and 0.94, except for Inner Mongolia (0.87).

In terms of the proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with the 5-year average, the former seven 16-day phases, covering from April to early July, shared almost the same proportion pattern, while the last phase had below-average anomalies in more than 40% of the cropped areas, the reason of which might be the heavy rainfall and the impact of floods on the crops.

Table 4.1 CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators for China, April to July 2020, departure from 5YA and 15YA

Figure 4.1 China crop calendar

Figure 4.2 China spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, April - July 2020

Figure 4.3 China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, April - July 2020

Figure 4.4 China spatial distribution of temperature profiles, April - July 2020

Figure 4.9 Proportion of different drought categories from April to July 2020