Using multi-source remote sensing data, namely Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 from European Space Agency (ESA), Landsat 8 from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and Chinese satellite data of Gaofen-1 and Gaofen-2, together with the latest agro-meteorological data,  the yield of China's staple grain and oil crops (mainly including maize, rice, wheat and soybean) in 2020 was quantitatively predicted by integration of remote sensing index model, agro-meteorological yield estimation model. Based on GVG APP, 320,501 crops samples covering 586 counties in 10 provinces and autonomous regions of Northeast China, North China and the Lower Yangtze River were collected (see figure 4.10). Combined with the latest national 10 m resolution cropland data, crop area was estimated using Big Data analysis method. The results are as follows:

In 2020, the total crop output is expected to be 618,405 thousand tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1,267 thousand tons or 0.2%. The total output of summer crops (including maize, single rice, late rice, spring wheat, soybean, coarse grain, tuber crops and other minor crops) is expected to be 453,457 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.5% (2.4 million tons) compared with that in 2019; the total output of winter crops in 2019-2020 is 131,502 thousand tons, which is 346 thousand tons higher than that in 2018-2019, with an increase of 2.7%.

The total production of rice in China is predicted at 199,394 thousand tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% (about 369 thousand tons). The main reason is that the continuous heavy rainfall in the South China has been unfavourable to rice production since June 2020, and the average rice yield in China has decreased by 2.0% year-on-year (Table 4.2 and Table 4.3). The production of early rice was 33,446 thousand tons, an increase of 0.6% over the same period of last year. There were several flooding disasters in the early rice-growing season in Jiangxi, Hunan and other major early rice-producing provinces, the continuous occurrence of heavy rainfall and the accompanying storm weather caused the early rice lodging to be seriously affected than in previous years, which led to a year-on-year decrease in the yield of most major early rice-producing provinces. Even though, China's early rice production still increased by 209 thousand tons from 2019 thanks to the the increased planted area by 2.2% from 2019, indicating limited effect from the COVID-19. The flooding disasters also negatively impacted on the single and late rice production in Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei and Anhui provinces in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, with a total of 397 thousand hectares of rice were damaged. At the same time, continuous overcast Rain and fair weather led to a year-on-year decrease in the average yield of single rice and late rice, resulting in decreases in the national single rice production by 242 thousand tons, and the late rice decreased by 1,479 thousand tons. It is also noteworthy that the agro-meteorological conditions of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces in Northeast China were generally favourable, and the total production of rice in the three provinces increased by 424 thousand tons from 2019.

In 2020, the total output of maize in China is expected to be 225,737 thousand tons, an increase of 1,392 thousand tons (about 0.6%) compared with that in 2019. The national maize planted area is 39,300 thousand hectares, which is almost the same as that in 2019, with a slight increase of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the average yield of maize in China is expected to recover from the lower level in 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% (Table 4.2). Thanks to the favourable rainfall and heat conditions, the yield of maize in the Loess Plateau, including Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia and Gansu provinces, has increased by more than 3.0%, and the maize planted area has also expanded, resulting in an increase of 8.4%, 6.6%, 5.1% and 3.6% respectively. The agrio-meteorological conditions of the maize growth period in Shandong and Hebei are beneficial, and the maize yield will recover from the 2019 drought conditions. In these provinces, the yield of maize increased by 3.4% and 3.6% respectively. Affected by the continuous rainy weather in July in Northeast China, the maize yield decreased by 1.4%, 4.0% and 1.8% in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and Jilin Provinces, respectively.

The national soybean production continued to increase for the fifth consecutive year, with a total output of 14,797 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 356 thousand tons, or 2.5% (Table 4.2). The soybean planted area reached 79,787 thousand hectares, a marginal increase of 1.0% from 2019. Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Liaoning and Hebei had the largest percentage increases in the soybean planted area, with an increase of 2.5%, 2.4%, 1.4%, 1.1% and 1.1% respectively. While in Heilongjiang Province, the largest soybean-producing province, the soybean area decreased by 0.3% compared with 2019. The soybean yield in Hebei, Henan, Shanxi and Shandong provinces increased by 4.1%, 3.7%, 3.8% and 1.8% respectively. The soybean yield in Northeast China dropped from 2019 and the main reason is that the precipitation in July was less than normal, which led to the mild drought in flowering and pod setting period of soybean. The precipitation recovered to the normal level in the first ten days of August, the drought was relieved, and the reduction rate of soybean yield was less than 1%.

It must be pointed out that the heavy rainfall in Sichuan in mid-August led to serious flooding disasters in Sichuan, Chongqing and some other places, which was unfavourable to the summer crops production in Sichuan and Chongqing. The main affected crops were maize and rice. The crop yield of summer crops might be lower than the predicted yield as reported in this bulletin.

Based on the latest remote sensing data and ground observation data throughout the growing season of winter crops, the national wheat production in 2020 is estimated at 127,052 thousand tons, which reveals an increase by 3,537 thousand tons compared with that in 2019 (Table 4.2). The wheat production in the four major winter wheat-producing provinces of Henan, Shandong, Anhui and Hebei increased by 1,117 thousand tons, 708 thousand tons, 177 thousand tons and 37 thousand tons, respectively. The main reason for the increase of wheat production in Henan, Shandong and Anhui was the expansion of planting area, while the wheat yield in Hebei increased by 2.0% from 2019. The total wheat production of other wheat-producing provinces was almost at the same level as 2019.

Figure 4.10. GVG samples collected during July to August 2020 in supporting to crop area estimation

Table 4.2, China 2020 production of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean, and percentage change from 2019, by province

* Production for Taiwan province is not included.

Table 4.3. China 2020 early rice, single rice, and late rice production and percentage difference from 2019, by province

* Production for Taiwan province is not included.