This section analyzes the import and export situation of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean in the first quarters of 2020 in China.

In the first half of the year, China imported 1.2342 million tons rice, down by 2.7% compared to the same period last year. The main sources of rice imports were Vietnam, Myanmar, Pakistan, Thailand and Cambodia, accounting for 36.8%, 22.1%, 12.8%, 11.7% and 10.7% respectively, with an import value of US$684 million. Rice exports totaled 1.3613 million tons, a decrease of 7.4% over the previous year, mainly exported to Egypt, Sierra Leone and South Korea, accounting for 16.6%, 8.8% and 8.1% of the total exports respectively, with a value of US$527 million.

In the first half of the year, China imported 3.3519 million tons of wheat, an increase of 90.3% over same period in the previous year. The main sources of wheat imports were France, Australia and Canada, accounting for 31.1%, 30.4% and 20.7% of the total imports respectively, with an import value of US$960 million. The export volume of wheat and its products was 138.4 ktons, a decrease of 10.5% over the previous year, mainly to North Korea and Hong Kong, accounting for 75.7% and 22.4% of the total exports respectively, with a value of US $52 million.

In the first half of the year, China imported 3.6561 million tons of maize, an increase of 17.6% over the previous year. The main sources of import were Ukraine and Bulgaria, accounting for 93.5% and 3.1% of the total imports respectively, with an import value of US$781 million. Maize export was 1.7 ktons, a decrease of 80.2% over the previous year, and the export value was US$391.3 thousand, a decrease of 82.5% over the previous year.

In the first half of the year, China imported 45.0439 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 17.7% over the previous year. The main sources of imports were Brazil, the United States and Argentina, accounting for 72.3%, 20.5% and 5.6% of the total imports respectively, with an import value of US$17.631 billion. Soybean export was 50.6 ktons, a decrease of 24.9% over the previous year.

Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2020

Based on remote sensing-based production prediction in major agricultural producing countries in 2020 and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, which is derived from the standard GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project), it is predicted that the import of major grain crop varieties will increase slightly in 2020. The details are as follows:

Rice import will decrease by 4.3% and export will decrease by 8.2% in 2020. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is a major problem in the global rice market. The supply and demand of the rice market is basically balanced. The price gap persists at home and abroad. Chinese rice supply and demand are loose. The import of rice is stable due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic. It is expected to decrease slightly in 2020.

Chinese wheat import will increase by 35.6% and export will decrease by 8.5% in 2020. The global wheat output is basically the same as that of the previous year, and the price difference between China and foreign countries continues to exist. Affected by factors such as feed substitution, the import of wheat is expected to increase significantly in 2020.

Chinese maize import will increase by 19.5% and export will decrease by 20.8% in 2020. The global supply and demand of maize increased slightly, but the inventory level was further reduced, the domestic maize price was running at a high level, the international maize price was fluctuating at a low level, and the price difference between China and foreign countries was expanded. It is expected that Chinese maize import will grow steadily in 2020.

Chinese soybean import will increase by 15.4% and export will decrease by 9.6% in 2020. According to the results of the model, the global soybean supply is abundant, and the price difference between China and foreign countries remains high, and Chinese soybean import continues to increase. In addition, the first phase of Sino US economic and Trade Agreement continues to advance, and Chinese soybean import is expected to continue to increase in 2020.

Figure 4.19 Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2020 compared to those for 2019(%)