Building on the CropWatch analyses presented in chapters 1 through 4, this chapter presents first early outlook of crop production for 2020 (section 5.1), as well as sections on recent disaster events (section 5.2), and an update on El Niño (5.3).

5.1 CropWatch food production estimates

Methodological introduction

CropWatch production estimates are based on a combination of remote-sensing models combined with global agro-meteorological conditions and meteorological observation data from more than 20,000 agro-meteorological stations around the world. We analyze the conditions and production of the major bulk grain crops (maize, rice, wheat and soybean) in the 43 major food producing countries. The results are as follows:

Production estimates

In 2020, global maize production is expected to be 1,068.010 million tons, due to an increase by 12.9 million tons (+1.2%). Global rice is expected to decrease by 1.1% (-8.41 million tons). Wheat production is estimated to increase by 1.8% to 729 million tons (+12.77 million tons). A slightly lower increase is forecasted for soybean (+0.2%). Production will be 325 million tons. In 2020, the global production of bulk grain and oil crops will be generally stable (Table 5.1).

Table5.1 2020 cereal and soybean production estimates in thousand tonnes. Δ is the percentage of change of 2020 production when compared with corresponding 2019 values.

Maize

U.S. maize production is forecasted at 378.12 million tons, an increase by 2.6%. The main reason for the increase is the generally favorable weather conditions in the main maize-producing areas. Due to the average distribution of precipitation, maize yields will increase by 4.2%, offsetting the impact of the area reduction. China's maize production will increase slightly by 0.6%, reach to 225.737 million tons, while production in the world's third-largest maize producer, Brazil, decreases by 2.8% to 82.975 million tons. Argentina's maize production was 54.054 million tons with an increase of 1.7%. Most European countries have recovered from the dry weather conditions during early spring.  Countries such as Germany, France, Hungary, Italy and Ukraine have maintained normal precipitation since the maize sowing period and maize production has generally increased. In Mozambique, Myanmar, Nigeria and Turkey, drought occurred during the key growth periods of maize jointing and tasseling, and the yield of maize decreased by 3.1%, 12.3%, 14.2%, and 2.2% respectively. In Romania, affected by drought during the planting period, the growth period of maize was lagging behind as compared to previous years and the planting area was low, resulting in a 7.0% reduction in maize production. Early warning indicators of crop planting area show that India’s maize planting area has shrunk by 4.6%, leading to a reduction in maize production. The maize output of other countries has increased by different degrees. The production situation in the countries from which China sources its maize import and the global maize supply comes remains normal.

Rice

Affected by drought, rice production in Brazil, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Nigeria decreased by 3.3%, 5.0%, 6.5%, and 10.8%, respectively. Bangladesh’s rice production decreased by 5.0%, Mozambique’s rice production decreased slightly by 0.3% and other major rice producers all experienced a small production increase. However, affected by floods and unfavorable agrometeorological conditions in the world's largest rice producing country, China, rice production decreased by 1.8% with a reduction of 3.69 million tons. Since the output of other small rice producers fell by 4.1%, global rice production decreased 8.41 million tons, which is a 1.1% reduction at the global scale. In general, the global rice production and supply situation are stable.

Wheat

Most of the winter wheat in the main producing countries in the northern hemisphere has been harvested in June 2020. Wheat was under drought stress in many European major wheat producing countries such as France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Ukraine and the United Kingdom, where wheat output was reduced by 6.4%, 4.1%, 2.0%, 5.3%, 7.4%, and 1.9% respectively. During the COVID-19 pandemic, travel bans from various countries have also affected the timely harvest of wheat to varying degrees in some countries.  The wheat producing areas in the United States suffered from a cold wave in mid-April and the wheat in the flowering period was affected, resulting in an output reduction by 3.7%. Even so, global wheat production still increased by 12.77 million tons, mainly due to the increase of wheat production in the three major wheat-producing countries: China, India and Russia, by 2.9%, 6.1%, and 4.7%. Meanwhile, wheat production of Iran, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan and Poland, as well as Mexico, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, Zambia and other countries in the southern hemisphere have also increased. Overall, the global wheat supply situation is good.

Soybean

In 2020, Brazil's soybean production decreased slightly by 1.0% to 99.749 million tons. The output of the main soybean producing countries increased except for Brazil. Thanks to the good agro-meteorological conditions in the main soybean producing regions, the yield of soybeans in the United States increased by about 3.3%. The country's soybean production is expected to increase by 3.5% to 1061.07 million tons, surpassing Brazil again to become the world's largest soybean producer in 2020. It needs to be emphasized that the enthusiasm of US farmers to plant soybeans is still not high, and the soybean planting area increased slightly by 0.2%, which is still significantly lower than the peak level in 2018. Soybean production in Argentina increased by approximately 2.2% to 52.587 million tons. Early warning indicators of crop planting area show that soybean planting area in India has increased significantly by about 7.5% and soybean production in India is expected to increase. China has continued the trend of continuous soybean production increases during recent years and its soybean production increased by 2.5%. The total global soybean production increased slightly by 0.2% and the production of major soybean exporting countries increased. The global soybean market is expected to be generally stable.