The current period covers the main growth period and the early harvest of wheat and barley, the main cereal crops of Australia. The national NDVI profiles are much better than the average of the last 5 years, nearly reaching the peak.

In the JASO period, Australia experienced above-average rainfall (RAIN +12%). The average temperature was 12°C, which was slightly above the 15YA (+0.2°C). The rainy weather led to below average sunshine (-5%). Though the higher rain was beneficial for crop growth, below-average solar radiation led to a decrease of the potential biomass estimate (-1%). The agronomic indicators were positive, with a VCIx of 0.86, an increased CALF (+4%) and an average CI (-1%).

Spatially, the conditions in three (New South Wales, South Australia, and Victoria) out of four main wheat production states were similar. They featured above-average rain, cool temperatures and slightly less sunshine, which led to a below average estimate of potential biomass. In the remaining state,  Western Australia, an increase in biomass production was estimated. The VCIx map shows that the overall conditions in Australia were favorable considering the generally water limiting conditions for cereal production in Australia. The highest and lowest VCI were both found in New South Wales. The spatial NDVI profiles show above-average conditions in 45.2% of the cropland, below-average conditions on 20.6%, while the remaining 34.2% were near average. Overall, the crop conditions for Australia were very favorable. 

Regional analysis

This analysis adopts five agro-ecological regions for Australia, namely the Arid and Semi-arid Zone, Southeastern Wheat Zone, Subhumid Subtropical Zone, Southwestern Wheat Zone, Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone. The Arid and Semi-arid Zone, in which hardly any crop production takes place, was not analyzed.

The NDVI profiles in the three southeast zones, including the Southeastern Wheat Zone, Subhumid Subtropical Zone, Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone, show that the crop conditions were good, reaching the 5-year maximum. Rainfall in these zones was above average (Southeast wheat area +28%, Subhumid subtropical zone +15%, Wet temperate and subtropical zone +16%). The temperatures were around the average (-0.1°C, 0.2°C, 0.1°C), while the solar radiation was below (-8%, -5%, -6%). The potential biomass was below average in the Southeast wheat area (-7%) and Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone (-3%), but above average in the Subhumid subtropical zone (+3%). CALF departures were as follows: Southeast wheat area +3%, Subhumid subtropical zone +17%, Wet temperate and subtropical zone -2%. The cropping intensities were nearly no changes. The production of wheat and barley in these zones is estimated as above average.

The Southwestern wheat area experienced below-average rainfall (-21%), warm temperatures (+0.5°C), and slightly above-average sunshine (+2%). With a CALF of 92%, the potential biomass increased by +8%, and cropping intensity was not change. As a result, the production of this zone is generally favorable.

Overall, combining the agro-climatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions in the JASO period were favorable, and an above-average production is estimated.

Figure 3.6. Australia crop condition, July 2020-October 2020

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (e)NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semiarid zone (left) and Southeastern wheat area (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone (left) and Southwestern wheat area (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Wet temperate and subtropical zone)

(i)Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right))