The reporting period includes the harvesting of spring wheat from August to September and the planting of winter wheat from August to October. The nationwide rainfall was 254 mm, 6% below the 15YA average. Temperature increased slightly (16°C, +1.0°C) while radiation was somewhat below average (RADPAR, 780MJ/m², -3%). The potential biomass was below average (-2%). Agronomic conditions were generally favorable: very good values of VCIx (0.97) and cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 100%) were observed. However, due to the decrease of rainfall in center and north Belarus during the period of winter wheat sowing, crop prospects for the 2020/21 season in these areas could be affected.

The NDVI development graph indicates that crop condition had gradually recovered to the level of the 5-year average starting in August. Crop condition in about 71.2% cropped area was close to or above the 5-year average, in agreement with the national VCIx map. There was an apparent drop in NDVI profiles in most of the areas from July to August, and the reason for this might be the gradual decrease of rainfall during this period. According to the VCIx distribution map, VCIx was satisfactory in most cropped areas of the country (above 0.8), indicating fair crop prospects, while most low values were scattered in the southern area.

Although agronomic indicators were generally favorable starting in August, below-average rainfall in the central and northern area caused low soil moisture conditions and may have negatively impacted germination of winter wheat. Crop conditions in most areas of the country during the past months were generally close to the 5-year average, indicating favorable crop prospects.

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, including Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, the northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus recorded a minor radiation deficit (-4%) combined with lower rainfall (-9%) and slightly higher temperatures (+0.8°C).  Potential biomass decreased by 6% below average. The VCIx had reached 0.99, and CALF had reached 100%. The NDVI development curve was generally above average. Winter wheat may grow normally based on agro-climatic indicators in this area but the impact of lower soil moisture in this period on winter wheat germination and early establishment requires close attention.

Central Belarus also experienced lower rainfall (-9%) and slightly higher temperature (+1.0°C), and less sunshine (-3%). Similar to Northern Belarus, high CALF (100%) and VCIx (0.97) were also recorded. The NDVI growth curve was generally above the average trend from July to October. But potential biomass decreased by about 2%, therefore winter wheat conditions in this area might also need close monitoring.

Precipitation in Southern Belarus was almost the same as the 15YA average level, while the temperature was slightly higher by 1.1°C and radiation was lower by 2%. Potential biomass was expected to increase by 1%. The CALF and the VCIx were 100% and 0.95 respectively. The water shortage in the previous period of spring did not have a negative impact on the production of spring wheat. The sufficient soil moisture will be beneficial for the winter wheat. 

Figure 3.10 Belarus’s crop condition, July - October 2020.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                   (e) NDVI profiles

(f)Rainfall time series 

(g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

Table 3.11 Belarus's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2020.

Table 3.12 Belarus’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2020.