his report for the July to October period covers a large proportion of the Meher rainy season (June to September). Rains decrease in October, when the harvesting period starts for maize, wheat, barley and teff. At the national scale, slightly more humid and cooler weather was observed in this monitoring period with rainfall 6% above average, temperature 0.5℃ below average and RADPAR 7% lower as compared to the 15YA. Due to lower RADPAR, biomass was calculated to be 9% lower than the 5YA. The NDVI crop condition development graph indicates a slow crop development in July and August. However, it recovered in September and reached average levels by October. The NDVI cluster map indicates that NDVI was slightly above average on 44.5% of the arable land, mainly in the central northern and eastern regions. In the southwestern Oromia and Southern nations region, NDVI was initially below average, probably due to excessive rainfall causing local flooding. But its values had fully recovered by October. This variation was in accordance with maximum VCI graph which shows VCIx in most zones between 0.8-1.0. At the end of October, 99% of arable land was cropped, which was 1% above the 5YA.

Although some regions’ agroclimatic indicators initially were unsatisfactory, crop conditions in most major crop producing areas in Ethiopia were favorable and CropWatch estimates average to above-average production levels for the major cereal crops.

Regional analysis

Based on agroclimatic patterns and cropping practices, CropWatch divided the country in the following regions: The Semi-arid pastoral zone, Southeastern Mendebo highlands, Southeastern mixed-maize zone, Western mixed maize regions, and Central-northern maize teff highlands.

Semi‐arid pastoral areas

In the Semi‐arid pastoral areas, a typical livestock production zone, precipitation was above average (+17%). The temperature and sunshine were slightly lower than average (TEMP -0.1℃, RADPAR -4%), resulting in a BIOMSS drop by -4%. However, NDVI values were higher than average and the VCI value of 0.94 also indicates favorable crop growth in this region. CALF increased greatly by 44% compared to the 5YA. Cropping intensity increased 18% compared to the average. The outlook for livestock production is favorable.

South-eastern Mendebo highlands

The southeastern Mendebo highlands are a major maize and teff producing area. During the reported period, it received above-average rainfall (+25%). Temperature (-0.5 ºC) , RADPAR (-5%) and BIOMSS (-8%) were below the 15YA. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) remained unchanged and the maximum VCIx was at 0.95. The NDVI crop condition development curve remained below the 5YA. Cropping intensity was close to the average. The production of maize and teff will be slightly down in the southeastern Mendebo highlands.

South-eastern mixed maize zone

In this zone, the average rainfall was 538 mm, which was 54% above average. Slightly lower temperatures (-0.3℃) and RADPAR (-3%) resulted in below-average BIOMSS  (-7%) as compared to the 15YA. The NDVI‐based Crop condition development curve was close to the 5YA. The maximum VCI value was 0.95 and the CALF increased by 4%. Cropping intensity increased 11% compares to the average. The crop conditions in this zone are favorable and slightly above average yields are expected.

Western mixed maize zone

In the western mixed maize zone, maize is the most important crop grown during the Meher season. Rainfall (+6%) was slightly above the 15YA, whereas lower temperature (TEMP -0.7℃) and sunshine (RADPAR- 8%)  resulted in a  BIOMSS estimate that was 12% below the 15YA. NDVI recovered to average levels by September. VCIx was at 1.00 and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) stayed unchanged. Cropping intensity increased 12% compares to the average. According to the CorpWatch indicators, conditions were rather favorable.

Central-northern maize-teff highlands

This is an important corn and teff producing area in Ethiopia. Precipitation was close to the 15YA, while temperature and PAR were 0.4 ºC and 7% below average respectively. The crops developed more slowly than usual, which explains the slightly below-average NDVI values in July. However, they recovered to average levels by August. The BIOMSS was down by 10% and VCIx was at 0.97. Cropping intensity increased 9% compares to the average. All in all, the outlook for the teff and maize crops is near average.

Figure 3.15 Ethiopia's crop condition, July-October 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

        (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                             (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                 (e) NDVI profiles        

(f) Time series rainfall                                                                             (g) Time series temperature

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi‐arid pastoral (left) South‐eastern Mendebo highlands (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South‐eastern mixed maize zone (left) and South‐eastern mixed maize zone (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central‐northern maize‐teff highlands

Table 3.21. Ethiopia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July ‐Ooctober 2020

Table 3.22. Ethiopia’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July ‐Ooctober 2020