By the end of this monitoring period, summer crops had been harvested and  winter wheat sowing was completed as well. According to the crop condition development graph, crops experienced slighly unfavorable conditions. NDVI values were close to average from July to September, and below average in October. Agro-climatic indicators show that rainfall was above average (RAIN, +12%), temperature and radiation were below average (TEMP -0.4℃, RADPAR -12%).  The below-average radiation and temperature resulted in below-average BIOMSS.  The seasonal RAIN profile shows that the rainfall in early July, mid-August, late August, early October, late October were above average,  and above the 15 year maximum in October. The temperature was close to the 15YA.

The national average VCIx was 0.95. CALF (100%) was unchanged compared to its five-year average. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 46% of arable land experienced slightly above-average crop conditions, mainly in East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, South West England and East of Scotland. (2) 33.2% of arable land experienced slightly below-average or average crop conditions, mainly in South East England. (3) 5.8% of arable land，scattered around Northern Ireland, Scotland and North West England, had slightly below-average crop conditions before a marked drop in mid-July, and recovered to average crop conditions from late July to mid-October. (4) 7.1% of arable land experienced average crop conditions from July to September before a marked drop in early October, and subsequently recovered to slighly below-average in late October, mainly in East of England. (5) 8% of arable land, scattered around East of England, East Midlands and Wales, experienced average crop conditions from July to September. Most likely, the large drops can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images. Altogether, the conditions for winter wheat in the UK are assessed as below average, mainly because the crops had suffered from drought conditions in spring and early summer.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national regions are described below: Northern barley region, Central sparse crop region and Southern mixed wheat and barley region. All three sub-regions are characterized by an unchanged fraction of arable land (CALF) compared to the 5YA.

In the northern barley region, NDVI was below average or close to average. Rainfall was above average (RAIN +4%), radiation (RADPAR -12%) and temperature (TEMP -0.6℃) were below average. Biomass was down 16% compared to average. This region is cultivated with a single system, and the CI (+1%)  was slightly above average, while the VCIx was at 0.96.

The Central sparse crop region is one of the country's major agricultural regions in terms of crop production.  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI is similar to northern barley region. Rainfall was above average (RAIN +16%), radiation (RADPAR -15%) and temperature (TEMP -0.5℃) were below average. Biomass（BIOMSS -18%）was below average. This region is cultivated with a mixture of single and double cropping systems, and the CI (+1%)  was slightly above average, while the VCIx was at 0.97.

In the Southern mixed wheat and barley zone, NDVI was below average or close to average. This region experienced the largest rainfall excess (RAIN  +16%), while radiation  (RADPAR -10%) and temperature (TEMP -0.3°C) were below average. The below-average radiation and temperature resulted in the below-average biomass (BIOMSS -10%). This region is cultivated with a mixture of single and double cropping systems, and the CI (+1%) was slightly above average. The region had an above-average VCIx (0.94).

Figure 3.17 United Kingdom crop condition, July‐October 2020

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   (c) Maximum VCI 

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Barley region (left) and Central sparse crop region  (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern mixed wheat and Barley zone)

Table 3.25 United Kingdom's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July ‐October 2020

Table 3.26 United Kingdom's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July ‐October 2020