During this monitoring period, the dry season maize and the second rice crop reached the mature stage and harvest began in October. Planting of the main rice crop started in October.

At the national scale, sunshine was below average (RADPAR -2%), whereas temperature (TEMP +0.2℃) and precipitation (RAIN +10%) were above the 15YA. The potential cumulative biomass (BIOMSS) was 1% below average as a result of reduced radiation.

According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, crop growth conditions were below the 5YA average over the reporting period. NDVI clusters and profiles show that 43.9% of the cropland over Eastern Indonesia was in below-average conditions before September and recovered to average during October.

Considering that the area of cropped arable land (CALF 99%) in the country was close to the 5YA average and the VCIx value reached 0.96, the national production is anticipated to be average or slightly below.

Regional analysis

CropWatch divides Indonesia into four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91) and West Papua (93), among which the first three regions are the most relevant for crop production. Java is the country’s main agricultural region.

The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) reached 100% in all the regions except for Java (98%), but CALF in Java had increased by 1% over the 5YA average.

The Java region received abundant precipitation (356 mm, +14%) during the monitoring period. The temperature was 25℃ as usual, and RADPAR was 1176 MJ/m² (+3%). BIOMSS (739 gDM/m²) did not change. The VCIx was just fair at 0.93. According to the NDVI development graph and average cropping intensity, the crop condition was close to the 5YA average. Overall, the crop conditions in Java were similar to those in previous years.

In the Kalimantan and Sulawesi area, precipitation was 23 % higher than the 15YA average, at 1128 mm, the largest increase in the four regions. The reduced temperature (-0.1℃) and RADPAR (-4%) brought a decrease in biomass production potential (BIOMSS -3%).  According to the NDVI development graph and the VCIx (0.96), crop condition in Kalimantan and Sulawesi are assessed as close to or slightly below average.

During the reporting period, the Sumatra region recorded a rainfall of1590 mm (RAIN+6%). TEMP (+0.2℃) and RADPAR (-1%) as well as BIOMSS (774 gDM/m²) remained close to the 15YA. VCIx was favorable at 0.97. Hence, the crop conditions were normal for this monitoring period.

Figure 3.19. Indonesia’s crop condition, July – October 2020

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI      (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Java (left)  and Kalimantan-Sulawesi (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sumatra)

Table 3.29 Indonesia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July – October 2020

Table 3.30 Indonesia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2020