During this reporting period, winter wheat harvest was completed in July and the 2020-21 crop was sown in October. 

Based on the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions in Italy were generally close to the 5-year average during this reporting period. At the national level, total precipitation was significantly above average (RAIN, +14%), temperature was close to average and radiation below average (RADPAR, -1%). This resulted in a 2% reduction of potential biomass production(BIOMSS -2%). 

CALF was 87%. VCIx nationwide reached 0.86 and it varied greatly within the regions. The NDVI departure clustering map and its development profiles reveal the noticeable changes of crop condition across regions and time. There are two main remarkable areas where the NDVI departure across the period was significant: As shown in Figure 3.22d, the dark green areas have excellent crop conditions (14.4% of the cropland). They were mainly located in the Po Valley. The red and blue color regions (42.8%), stretching from the north to the south along the center of the peninsula, represent poor crop conditions. On about 26.3% of the cropland, located in northern Italy, NDVI was above average from July to late September, and close to average thereafter. 

Overall, Crop production is expected to be near average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Italy. These four regions are East coast, Po Valley, Islands and Western Italy. 

On the East coast, RAIN and RADPAR were below average (RAIN -19%, RADPAR -1%), TEMP was above average (TEMP +0.1°C), resulting in an increase of biomass (BIOMSS +4%) compared to the 15YA.VCIx was 0.75 and low CALF (64%) indicated low crop cultivation. Cropping Intensity was 102%. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to the 5YA average from July to August but below average in September and October. Crop production is expected to be near average.

Crop production in the Po Valley was mainly affected by high rainfall (RAIN +26%). TEMP and RADPAR were the same as the 15YA average, which resulted in a slight BIOMSS increase (+3%). The area has a high CALF (100%) and the VCIx was 0.94 for this region. Cropping Intensity was 102%. The output for wheat is expected to be near average.

For the Islands, less rainfall (RAIN -17%) was observed. RADPAR was lower (-2%) and TEMP remained the same as the 15YA. Biomass was estimated at below-average level (BIOMSS -6%). NDVI was close to average during this reporting period except in mid-September. The VCIx was 0.74 and CALF reached 62%. Cropping Intensity was 101%. Hence, the output for wheat is expected to be close to average. 

The situation in Western Italy is as follows: higher rainfall (RAIN +5%), normal temperatures (no departure from the 15YA) and lower radiation (RADPAR -2%). Accordingly, biomass was below average (BIOMSS -5%). The NDVI curve followed the average trend in July and October, and was below average in August and September. The VCIx was 0.88 and CALF reached 0.95. Cropping Intensity was 121%. The area has a high CALF (95%) and VCIx was 0.88. Crop conditions were normal.

Summer crops production can be expected to be near average and the prospects for the winter wheat also follow the long-term average.

Figure 3.22. Italy crop condition, July-October 2020

Figure 3.22a. Italy phenology of major crops

Figure3.22b. Italy national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI,comparing the July-October 2020 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.22c. Italy maximum VCI for July-October  2020 by pixel

Figure3.22d. Italy spatial NDVI patterns up to October 2020 according to local cropping patterns and compared to 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.22f. East coast (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.22g. Po Valley (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.22h. Islands (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.22i. Western Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table3.35  Italy's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2020

Table 3.36 Italy's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA/5YA, July-October 2020