Bulletin

wall bulletin
KenyaMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: zhuliang

Kenya experiences two rainy seasons: The long rains last from March to May and the short rains from October to December. Maize can be grown during the  long and short rains, whereas wheat is grown during the long rains only.  During this reporting period, the long rain maize and wheat were harvested and the short rain maize was planted and started to grow.

At the national scale, precipitation was 21% above average. Above average rainfall was mainly concentrated in the Highland agriculture zone, Northern rangelands and South-west region, thus continuing the trend of the previous monitoring period. Excessive rainfall did not affect temperature and sunshine, both of which were close to the 15YA (TEMP -0.2, RADPAR unchanged) and BIOMSS was on average. The NDVI development graph at the national level stayed slightly above average during the entire monitoring period. According to the NDVI clusters and the map of NDVI profiles, 87.6% of the farmlands experienced favorable crop conditions from July to October, except for the central Machakos and southern Kwale. This was in agreement with the maximum VCI graph which showed VCIx in most zones between 0.8-1.0, except for some areas in the central and southern regions. Its national average reached 0.88 and the cropped arable land fraction increased by 11% compared to the 5YA. The national crop condition is assessed as generally favorable. Early growth of short rain maize will benefit from the abundant rainfall recorded in October.

Regional analysis

The Eastern coastal region is the only place where rainfall was significantly lower than the 15YA-41%). Temperatures were slight warmer (+0.4℃)and adequate sunshine (+3%) resulted in an increased estimate for biomass (+3%). The NDVI values stayed below the 5YA with slight fluctuations throughout the reporting period. VCIx reached 0.81 with CALF up 4%. Cropping intensity is 142% close to average. Crop conditions were normal for both livestock and crops in the coastal areas. The crop production will stay at the same level as in previous years.

The Highland agriculture zone recorded 435 mm of rain, above average by 25%. Temperature (TEMP -0.1°C), sunshine (RADPAR -1%) and biomass (BIOMSS -1%) stayed close to average. The NDVI profile was slightly above average during the whole reporting period. The maximum VCIx value was recorded at 0.89. In this area, cropped arable land fraction increased significantly by 16% compared to the 5YA. Cropping intensity was 22% below the average. In general, the crop conditions were favorable.

Agroclimatic indicators in the Northern region with sparse vegetation were similar to those in the Highland agriculture zone. Precipitation was above average (RAIN +33%). Temperature (TEMP unchanged), sunshine (RADPAR -2%) and BIOMSS (+2%) were close to the 15YA. The NDVI development curve stayed above the 5YA during the entire monitoring period. The maximum VCI was high at 0.90 with a comparative increase in CALF (+19%). Cropping intensity was 154% close to average. Overall, the CropWatch indicators point at favorable conditions.

South-west of Kenya includes the districts Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru, and Embu which are major producers of long rain wheat and maize. The total amount of rainfall recorded during the reporting period reached 646 mm (30% above average). Temperatures were slightly cooler (TEMP -0.9 ) and solar radiation (RADPAR +1%) was near average. Estimated biomass (BIOMSS -4%) was slightly lower. NDVI trended above average throughout the entire monitoring period.  Cropping intensity was 11% above the average. CALF was almost unchanged and VCIx was at 0.87. All in all, crop conditions were favorable and slightly above average yields for long rain wheat and maize are estimated.

Figure 3.25 Kenya's crop condition, July-October 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                             (c) Maximum VCI

   (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                 (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Time series rainfall                                                                             (g) Time series temperature


(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, The eastern coastal region(left), The Highland agriculture zone(right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the northern region with sparse vegetation(left), South-west(right)


Table 3.39. Kenya's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July -October 2020

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

BIOMSS

Current (mm)

Departure (%)

Current (°C)

Departure (°C)

Current (MJ/m2)

Departure (%)

Current (gDM/m2)

Departure (%)

Semi‐arid   pastoral areas

195

17

23.0

0.1

1301

-4

599

South‐eastern Mendebo highlands

593

25

14.5

-0.5

1075

-5

393

South‐eastern mixed maize zone

538

54

18.1

-0.3

1153

-3

519

Western   mixed maize zone

1376

6

19.2

-0.7

1012

-8

511

Central‐northern maize‐teff   highlands

966

-1

16.7

-0.4

1157

-7

429



Table 3.40. Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, July - October 2020


Region

Cropped arable land fraction

Cropping intensity

Maximum VCI

Current (%)

Departure (%)

Current (%)

Departure (%)

Current

Semi‐arid   pastoral areas

84

44

127

18

0.94

South‐eastern Mendebo highlands

100

0

126

1

0.95

South‐eastern   mixed maize zone

99

4

131

11

0.97

Western   mixed maize zone

100

0

128

12

1.00

Central‐northern   maize‐teff highlands

99

1

116

9

0.97