This monitoring period covers the monsoon season in Myanmar. The main rice (monsoon rice) was grown between June and September. Harvest started in October. Planting of maize and wheat started in September and October. Crop conditions were generally below average during the monitoring period.

RAIN (-4%) and RADPAR (-3%) were lower than the 15YA, whereas TEMP (+0.6ºC) was above the 15YA. As a result, potential cumulative biomass (BIOMSS) was 2% below the average, while the utilization of cropland was close to the 5YA. Cropping intensity was also at the level of 5YA. NDVI values were below average during the entire period except for mid-July and early September. The maximum VCI during this period was 0.92.

More than half of country’s croplands suffered from below-average crop condition during the period. Negative departures were mainly observed for the Central plain and the Hills region, including Mandalay Region, Magwe Region, south of Sagaing Region and Shan State. 19.7% of cropland showed positive NDVI departures from July to mid-September, whereas 23.2% of cropland was above average in July only. These croplands were mostly located in the Delta and Southern Coast region, including Regions of Yangon, Bago, Ayeyarwady, part of Magwe, Thanintaryi and States of Mon and Kayin. The maximum VCI was less than 0.8 in the central dry zone. Higher values were observed in the other regions.

Regional analysis

Three sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are the Central plain, the Hills and the Delta and Southern Coast regions.

The Central Plain had a marked rainfall deficit (RAIN -21%), with RADPAR down 1% and TEMP up 1ºC compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS was 1% higher than the 15YA, which was the only increase among the three sub-national regions.  CALF showed that 95% of the cropland was fully utilized,  but it was 2% below the 5YA. NDVI was consistently below the 5YA level during the whole period. The VCIx was 0.89. Crop conditions for this region were unfavorable. 

The Hills region had the highest RAIN (1936 mm) compared with the other two sub-national regions. It was 9% above the 15YA. RADPAR decreased by 5% while TEMP increased by 0.4 ºC. BIOMSS was 3% below 15YA. The cropland was almost fully used (CALF 99%). The NDVI values were generally below the 5YA and near average only in mid-June and October. The VCIx was 0.97. Crop conditions are assessed as below the 5YA level. 

The Delta and Southern Coast region experienced a dry monsoon season, with RAIN far below the 15YA (-25%). TEMP increased by 0.3ºC and RADPAR was near average. Estimated BIOMSS was also at the level of 15YA. Since the vast majority of cropland in this region is irrigated, the lack of rainfall had a limited negative impact on crop growth and production. CALF was 1% above the 5YA and VCIx was 0.93. Similar to other sub-national regions, crop conditions in this region were below average.

Figure 3.30 Myanmar crop condition, July-October 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Rainfall Profile

(d) Temperature Profile

(e)  Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Central Plain (left) and Hills regions (right)

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Delta and Southern Coast

Table 3.51 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2020

Table 3.52 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2020