July to October is the main harvesting time in Russia: winter crops are harvested from the end of June to the middle of July; spring grain crops have their peak season in July and are mainly harvested from August to September. The sowing of the current year's winter crops starts in Augut. Therefore, weather conditions are crucial in this monitoring period as they affect not only the spring grain crops (their growth in July and harvest in August and September) but also the winter crops (the harvest of the previous year's  in July and the sowing and germination of the current year's winter crops from August to October).

According to CropWatch national data, NDVI was below both the 5-year average and the previous year's level during the monitoring period. However, there were large differences between the regions. Conditions in the spring wheat producing areas (Volga, Urals and Siberia) were generally more favorable than in the winter wheat regions.

Precipitation was above average at the beginning of the period. By the end of September, there was a sharp drop in precipitation. In early and late July, as well as in late October, precipitation exceeded the level of 2019 and the 15YA. The precipitation was about 30% lower than the 15-year average and 2019 in late September and early October.

Above-average crop condition with VCIx above 0.8 were observed in Middle Volga and central black soil area as well the central and northern parts of Ural and Volga, where areas with positive NDVI departure prevailed. However, in some other regions, like northern Caucasus, crop conditions were average or below average with VCIx below 0.8 or even below 0.5, and with average NDVI or negative departures.

In the regions with positive NDVI departures the yield of the wheat crops is expected to be at or above the level of the previous year. Winter wheat, which is predominantly grown in the regions with negative NDVI departures, was harvested in July. Hence, crop conditions were generally favorable. 

Reginal analysis

In South Caucasus region, rainfall was below the 15-year average by 25%.  Temperature increased by 0.9℃ compared to the 15-year average, with RADPAR up by 2% and BIOMSS up by 4%. VCIx was 0.62, the lowest value for Russia. CALF had decreased by 15% compared to the 5-year average. NDVI was mainly below the level of the 2019 and the 5-year average. The yield of winter crops is likely to be lower than in the previous year in this region.

The North Caucasus experienced the lowest rainfall, which was below the 15-year average by 40%. Compared to the 15-year average, temperature was rose by 1.0℃, RADPAR increased by 3% and BIOMSS increased by 1%. CALF was 4% below the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.66. Unfavorable agroclimatic conditions resulted in NDVI being below both the 5-year average and the previous year average.

In Central Russia, rainfall was close to the 15-year average. Compared to the 15-year average, the temperature increased by 0.4℃, RADPAR decreased by 3%, and BIOMSS dropped by 9%. CALF was at the level of the 5-year average (100%). From July to October NDVI was below the 5-year average while close or slightly above the level of the previous year. In early July and early October, NDVI was above the previous level.

In the Central black soils region, there was a significant decrease  in rainfall, which was below the 15-year average by 37%. Both temperature (TEMP) and radiation (RADPAR) exceeded the 15-year average, by 0.6℃ and 5% respctively, while BIOMSS decreased by 1% due to unfavorable weather conditions. VCIx was 0.94 and CALF was 100%. NDVI was above the 5-year average and the previous year average in early July but then fell below the 5-year average from August to October. On account of unfavorable weather conditions, a decrease in yield can be expected in this region. 

In the Middle Volga region, there was a decrease in rainfall by 12% relative to the 15-year average while the temperature rose by 0.1℃ and RADPAR was up 2%. BIOMSS decreased by 1% compared to the 15-year average. CALF was 96% and VCIx was 0.87.  At the beginning of July, NDVI was above that of 2019 but then fell below the 5-year average for the remainder of this monitoring period.

In Ural and Western Volga region, a major spring wheat production area, there was an increase in precipitation by 7% relative to the 15-year average, while the temperature increased by 0.7℃ and RADPAR was up by 1%. Due to favorable weather condition, BIOMSS increased by 8% compared to the 15-year average. CALF was about 99% and VCIx was 0.87. From July to August NDVI was below both the 5-year average and the previous year average while in early September it reached the 5-year average. NDVI was near the 5-year average from mid-September to October.

In Eastern Siberia, another major spring wheat production area, precipitation exceeded the average by 15% while temperature and RADPAR decreased by 0.1℃ and 13% respectively, compared to the 15-year average. Due to abundant precipitation and low temperature and RADPAR, BIOMSS decreased by 14% compared to average. As to the agronomic indicators, CALF was about 99%, VCIx was 0.98. Except for mid-July and early October, NDVI was near the 5-year average. Moreover from early August to early October, NDVI was above the previous year's level. An increase in yield is expected in this region.

Rainfall was 33% above the 15-year average in Middle Siberia while temperature was only slightly higher (+0.4℃). RADPAR decreased 9% compared to the 15-year average. Unfavorable weather conditions led to a BIOMSS decrease by 10%. CALF was 99% and VCIx was 0.95. NDVI was above the 5-year average from July to September while only slightly below the average in October. An increase in yield is expected in this region.

In Western Siberia, there was an increase in rainfall by 22% relative to the 15-year average while the temperature rose by 0.2℃ and RADPAR was down 6%. Due to unfavorable weather conditions, the BIOMSS decreased by 2% compared to the 15-year average. CALF was 100% and VCIx was 0.86. From July to August, NDVI was below both the 5-year average and the previous year average. NDVI was near the previous year's level in September and above the 5-year average in late October.

Figure 3.38 Russia's crop condition, July‐October 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

   (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI        (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                 (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus (left) and Northern Caucasus (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia (left) and Central black soils area (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga (left) and Ural and western Volga region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Western Siberia (left) and the Middle Siberia (right)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Siberia)

(k) Rainfall index

(l) Temperature index

Table 3.25 Russia's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July ‐October 2020

Table 3.26 Russia's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July ‐October 2020