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Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: zhuliang
The reporting period covers the harvest of winter wheat (which mostly concluded in July), the growth and harvest of maize and rice, and the planting of winter wheat from September to October. Nationwide, RAIN was below average (-54%), and both TEMP (+1.1℃) and RADPAR (+2%) were above the 15YA. BIOMSS was -6% below the average. CALF was 3% up, indicating more land was cultivated.
The NDVI-based crop condition development graph indicates slightly below-average crop conditions during the whole monitoring period. The national average of VCIx was 0.78. Only limited parts of Turkey (mainly including the provinces of Kirklareli, Istanbul, Mus, Igdir, Sirnak, Tunceli, and Yozgat, etc.) experienced very promising VCIx values above 1.0, indicating that crops in those regions outperformed the best recent conditions. Most provinces located in central and western parts, such as Kirikkale, Afyonkarahisar, and Konya had low VCIx (< 0.5), which indicates below-average crop conditions.
In terms of the NDVI spatial departure clustering map, the results confirmed the spatial pattern described above. As shown by the VHIn graph, the proportion of cultivated areas experiencing minor to severe droughts was increasing to approximately 40% at the end of the monitoring period. Overall, most zones experienced some drought conditions throughout this monitoring period. Crop production is generally expected to be slightly below average.
Regional analysis
The regional analysis includes four agro‐ecological zones (AEZ): the Black Sea area, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone.
In the Black Sea zone, crop conditions were generally below average. The rainfall was below average (RAIN, -46%), while the temperature (TEMP) increased by 1.2℃. CALF was at average with a value of 95%, which was the highest among the four AEZs of Turkey. Cropping Intensity (CI) was at average. The average value of VCIx was high at 0.87, also the highest among all four AEZs. The crop conditions are assessed as normal.
During this monitoring period, the crop conditions were generally below average in the Central Anatolian plateau. This AEZ experienced the biggest rainfall deficit (RAIN, -64%) during this monitoring period. TEMP (+1.4℃) and RADPAR (+3%) were both above the 15YA. The BIOMSS index decreased slightly (-7%). Cropping Intensity (CI) was at average. The average VCIx for this region was 0.74, the lowest among the four AEZs. The cropped land area increased slightly (CALF +2%). Crop conditions are assessed as slightly below average.
In Eastern Anatolia, crop conditions were above average from mid-July to early September and then dropped to below average in October. TEMP and RADPAR were 0.7℃ and 1% above the average, respectively, while the rainfall was below average (RAIN -46%). BIOMSS increased by 9%, which was the biggest positive departure among the four AEZs. The CALF increased (+8%) compared to the average. Cropping Intensity (CI) was 6% down comparing to the 5YA, which is the largest negative departure among AEZs. With VCIx at 0.85, crop output is assessed to be favorable.
As indicated by the NDVI profile, in the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone, the crop conditions were below the 5YA during the whole monitoring period. RAIN was 58% below the average. The temperature was slightly above average (TEMP +1.1℃). Cropping Intensity (CI) was slightly up (+1%). VCIx was 0.75, and CALF is up 2%. Production prospects in this region are expected to be below or near average.
Figure 3.40 Turkey’s crop condition, July-October 2020
(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI
(c) Maximum VCI
(d) rainfall index
(e) temperature index
(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (g) NDVI profiles
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region)
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Anatolia region)
(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region)
(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region)
(l) Proportion of VHIm categories compared with 5YA
Table 3.71. Turkey's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2020
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | ||||
Current (mm) | Departure from 15YA (%) | Current (°C) | Departure from 15YA (°C) | Current (MJ/m2) | Departure from 15YA (%) | Current (gDM/m2) | Departure from 5YA (%) | |
Black Sea region | 155 | -46 | 16.4 | 1.2 | 1164 | 5 | 495 | 6 |
Central Anatolia region | 40 | -64 | 19.3 | 1.4 | 1314 | 3 | 466 | -7 |
Eastern Anatolia region | 80 | -46 | 18.1 | 0.7 | 1326 | 1 | 422 | 9 |
Marmara Agean Mediterranean lowland region | 52 | -58 | 22.7 | 1.1 | 1326 | 1 | 393 | -16 |
Table 3.72. Turkey's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, July - October 2020
Region | Cropped arable land fraction | Cropping Intensity | Maximum VCI | ||
Current (%) | Departure from 5YA (%) | Current (%) | Departure from 5YA (%) | ||
Black Sea region | 95 | 0 | 102 | 0 | 0.87 |
Central Anatolia region | 36 | 2 | 103 | 0 | 0.74 |
Eastern Anatolia region | 53 | 8 | 101 | -6 | 0.85 |
Marmara Agean Mediterranean lowland region | 58 | 2 | 108 | 1 | 0.75 |