Bulletin

wall bulletin
UzbekistanMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: zhuliang

This report covers the harvest of winter wheat and maize. Sowing of winter wheat started in September.


The crop conditions for the country were generally favorable and peaked at above-average levels in August, according to the NDVI development graph. The national average VCIx was 0.93, and the cropped arable land fraction increased by 14%. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, TEMP and RADPAR were below average (‐1.5°C, and -5%), while RAIN increased by 4%. The agro-climatic conditions resulted in an increase of BIOMSS by 27% compared to the recent fifteen‐year average. The NDVI cluster graphs and profiles show generally positive NDVI departures, i.e., conditions were better than average and VCIx was higher from July to October covering most provinces of Samarkand, Kashkadarya on about 38% of the cropland. Only about 11% experienced below-average conditions. 

Overall, the crop conditions are estimated as favorable.


Regional analysis

In the rainfed Eastern hilly cereals zone, the main wheat production region of the country, NDVI was near average from July to early August and above average from the end of August until early October. RAIN was slightly above average (+7%), and RADPAR and TEMP were below average (‐5% and -1.6°C). The combination of these factors resulted in a BIOMSS increase (+38%) compared to the 15YA average. The maximum VCI index was 1.00, while the cropped area increased by 24% compared to the five-year average. In short, crop condition were favorable in this zone.


In the Irrigated Aral Sea cotton zone, the crop conditions were the least favorable among the three regions, however, they were still close to average. This zone does usually not receive any significant summer rains, so the shortage of rainfall (RAIN -82%) had no impact on crop production, as all the cotton is irrigated.  The maximum VCI index was 0.83 while the cropped arable land increased by 4%. Overall, crop prospects were normal.


The crops in the Central region experienced the most favorable conditions according to the NDVI development graph. NDVI values exceeded the 5YA for most of the monitoring period. Average TEMP was 22.6°C, 1.2°C below the 15YA and RADPAR was also below average (-3%). The above average estimate for biomass  (BIOMSS +5%) was in agreement with the NDVI values.  Overall, the maximum VCI at 0.96 and the positive departure of the CALF (+13%) indicated favorable conditions in this region. Above average production is estimated for this region.

Figure 3.43 Uzbekistan’s crop condition, April - July 2020


(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                             (c) Maximum VCI



(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                 (e) NDVI profiles


(f) Rainfall time series from April to July                        (g) Temperature time series from April to July


(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Aral Sea cotton region          (left) Eastern hilly cereals region (right)


(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Central region with sparse crops



Table 3.77 Uzbekistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July – October 2020



RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

BIOMSS

 

Region

Current (mm)

Departure from 15YA (%)

Current (°C)

Departure from   15YA (°C)

Current   (MJ/m2)

Departure from 15YA (%)

Current   (gDM/m2)

Departure   from 15YA (%)

Central region with sparse crops

4

-68

22.6

-1.2

1296

-3

293

5

Eastern hilly cereals zone

39

7

20.4

-1.6

1307

-5

382

38

Aral Sea cotton zone

3

-82

22.5

-0.8

1261

-3

279

-11



Table 3.78 Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July – October 2020


CALF

Maximum VCI

Region

Current (%)

Departure from   5YA (%)

Current

Central region with sparse crops

85

13

0.96

Eastern hilly cereals zone

68

24

1.00

Aral Sea cotton zone

75

4

0.83