The period covers the end of the irrigated dry-season crops and the onset of the rainfed season. Key irrigated crops are predominately wheat, green maize, horticultural crops and vegetables. Irrigated wheat was harvested in late September into October. While the monitoring quarter is in the dry season, recorded rainfall was 19 mm (-3%). Average temperature of 21.5℃ and average radiation of 1339 MJ/m2 (-4%) caused a slight increase in biomass production estimates of 349 gDM/m2 (+3%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 39% resulting mainly from irrigated areas as indicated by the maximum VCI of 0.70. Overall, conditions for the irrigated crops were favorable.

Regional Analysis

Based on regional analyses of the agro-ecological region, rainfall received in all the agro-ecological zones was above the 15 year average except for the western semi-arid zone where the departure was negative (-62%). The temperature varied from 21.2℃ to 22.0℃ with negligible departure from the 15YA. The radiation in all agro-ecological zones was more than 1300 MJ/m2 (+4%) and resulted in positive BIOMSS departures except in the Luangwa-Zambezi Rift Valley (-1%). A similar pattern was observed for the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) with highest CALF for Northern High Rainfall Zone (79%, +1%) and lower values in the other zones: Luangwa-Zambezi Rift Valley (14%, -53%), Central-East South and Plateau (26%, -14%) and the Western Semi-Arid Plateau (41%, -17%). The vegetation health index (max VCI) was lowest in Luangwa-Zambezi Valley (VCIx 0.53). The Crop Index (CI) is 100 with a negative departure (<-1.0%) for three AEZ except the Northern High Rainfall zone (CI = 109, upwards by 4%). 

The weather outlook for the next quarter indicates a higher‑than‑normal probability of above‑average cumulative rainfall, which portrays favourable yield prospects for the 2021 cereal crops.

Figure A: Phenology map of main crops

Figure B: Time series rainfall profile

Figure C: Time series temperature profile

Figure D: Maximum VCI

Figure E: Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Figure F: Proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with 5YA

Figure G: Proportion of VHIx categories compared with 5YA

Figure K Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 1: Zambia's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2020

Table 2: Zambia'agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA/5YA, Julie -October 2020