After a brief overview of the agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 presents an updated estimate of major cereals and soybean production at provincial and national level as well as summer crops production and total annual outputs (4.2) and describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, LowerYangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.3). Additional information on the agro-climatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces is listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

From the perspectives of agroclimatic indicators, the overall conditions were generally favorable in China from July to October 2020, with rainfall increasing above average by 10%, temperature and radiation slightly down by 0.4°C and 10%, respectively.  As a result, the maximum VCI was rather high at 0.95. Moreover, the mean of CALF for the whole country was 1% above average. 

According to the spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, both above-average and below-average rainfall was observed during the monitoring period. Some provinces in middle China (most parts of Chongqing, Jiangsu, Anhui, southern parts of Henan, and some parts in Hubei, marked in dark green) received 120 mm/dekad more rainfall as compared to the average in mid-July, while some parts in Yunnan, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan, and Shandong (marked in light green) also experienced excessive rainfall (more than 90 mm/dekad as compared to the average) in Mid-August. All of the main agricultural regions of China recorded above-average rainfall, with the largest positive departure occurring in Northeast China (+46%). 

Only one main agricultural region in China recorded above-average temperatures (Southern China, +0.1°C), while the other regions all recorded below-average temperatures with negative departures ranging from -0.7°C (Inner Mongolia and Loess region) to -0.1°C (Northeast China). The map with the spatial distribution of temperature profiles indicates that temperatures fluctuated during the monitoring period as follows: 10.1% of cultivated regions in northeast parts of China (western parts of Heilongjiang and Jilin, and some parts of Inner Mongolia) had positive temperature anomalies by more than 1.3°C, occurring in middle to late July, while 44% of the cropped areas in central, northern, and eastern China (covering 14 provinces) experienced negative temperature anomalies by more than 2.5°C in both mid-July and early October. 

As for RADPAR, all AEZs in China received less radiation as compared to the 15YA, as a result of excessive rainfall, with the biggest negative anomaly in Southwest China (-18%), and the smallest in Huanghuaihai (-5%). In respect to BIOMSS, all of the AEZs in China had negative departures of BIOMSS, with the departures between -18% (South-west China) and -5% (Southern China), as a result of the relatively lower temperatures. As can be seen in the spatial distribution of potential biomass departure from the 15YA, negative departures by more than 20% were concentrated mainly in southwest China (some parts in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Tibet) and some parts in Hunan.

CALF increased in the Loess region (+4%) and Inner Mongolia (+2%) as compared to the 5YA, indicating that the outlooks of crop production in these two regions are promising. The remaining regions all showed average CALF. The largest departure of Cropping Intensity occured in Southwest China (+7%), while all the other AEZs in China had the CI departure ranging from -1% to 4%. The VCIx values were higher than 0.9 in all of the main producing regions of China, with values between 0.94 and 0.98. When combining VHIn with the rainfall profiles, droughts were estimated for some  parts of Huang Huai Hai region in July only. 

Table 4.1 CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators for China, July to Oct 2020, departure from 5YA and 15YA

Figure 4.1 China crop calendar

Figure 4.2 China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, July to Oct 2020

Figure 4.3 China spatial distribution of temperature profiles, July to Oct 2020

Figure 4.4 China cropped and uncropped arable land, by pixel, July to Oct 2020

Figure 4.5 China maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), by pixel, July to Oct 2020

Figure 4.6 China biomass departure map from 15YA, by pixel, July to Oct 2020

Figure 4.7 China minimum Vegetation Health Index  (VHIm), by pixel, July to Oct 2020