The current CropWatch bulletin describes world-wide crop condition and food production as appraised by data up to the end of January 2021.

The assessment is based mainly on remotely sensed data. It covers prevailing weather conditions, including extreme factors, at different spatial scales, starting with global patterns in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 focuses on agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in major production zones in all continents. Chapter 3 covers the major agricultural countries that, together, make up at least 80% of production and exports (the “core countries”) while chapter 4 zooms into China. Special attention is paid to the production outlook of major cereal and oil crops (maize, rice, wheat and soybean) countries in the Southern Hemisphere and some tropical and sub-tropical countries. Subsequent sections of Chapter 5 describe the global disasters that occurred from October 2020 to January 2021. 

This bulletin covers the beginning of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere, as well as the sowing period and early vegetative growth of (winter) wheat in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Agro-climatic conditions 

Global agroclimatic conditions are assessed based on CropWatch Agroclimatic Indices which describe weather and climate over agricultural areas only. They are referred to as RAIN, TEMP and RADPAR and expressed in the same units as the corresponding climatological variables (rainfall, temperature and photosynthetically active radiation). BIOMSS is an estimate of the plant biomass production potential. 

Weather conditions for food production were generally favorable during this monitoring period. Conditions for harvest of the summer crops were good in the Northern Hemisphere, except for the rice producing countries in South-East Asia that got hit by several tropical cyclones. No large-scale floods were observed. However, some regions were affected by droughts: The drought conditions in the Western USA, as well as in Mexico continued. The dry conditions in Brazil caused record low water levels of the Parana river. The late start of the rainy season in Brazil delayed planting of soybeans. Subsequently, rains stayed below average. Argentina was also affected by drier than normal conditions. In both countries, the drought caused a reduction in maize and soybean production. Two other regions that were affected by drought were the Volga region in Russia and Central Asia. However, it is too early to tell whether this will have a big impact on yield of winter wheat. 

No extreme temperatures that would cause yield losses were recorded during this monitoring period. Solar radiation remained close to normal as well. It tended to be above average in regions that were affected by drier than normal conditions. 

Agronomic conditions 

CropWatch closely monitors the conditions of these crops: wheat, maize, rice and soybean.

Maize: Moisture conditions for maize production in southern Africa as well as in South- and South-East Asia were quite favorable. Above average production can be expected. In Mexico, as well as in Argentina and Brazil, droughts caused a reduction in area planted and yield. Production is estimated to decrease in Argentina (-11%), Brazil (-6%) and Mexico (-4%). 

Rice: Harvest of rainfed rice in China, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and South-East Asia was completed by December. Rainfall in South-East Asia returned to normal levels, aided by several typhoons. They caused local damage only. Nevertheless, rice output from Asian countries is expected to remain stable. Production in the other parts of the world is minor in relation to Asia. It is expected to remain stable in Nigeria and West Africa as a whole, while production in Argentina is forecasted to decline because of drier than normal conditions. In Brazil, conditions for rice production were average. Overall, rice production remains stable. 

Wheat: Sowing of winter wheat in the Northern Hemisphere took place between September and October. Most winter wheat production regions in the USA, Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and East Asia experienced favorable conditions for germination and early growth. The only regions affected by drought were the Western USA, Mexico, as well as the Volga region of Russia and the Central Asian countries. Ample precipitation during the winter months and spring will be key in these countries to ensure a normal production. 

Soybean: Soybeans are predominantly grown during the respective summer months in both hemispheres. Drought conditions in Argentina and Brazil have negatively impacted production. They are expected to decrease by 13% in Argentina and 6% in Brazil.

All in all, production prospects are quite unfavorable for the four major staple crops during the reporting period.