For Center Europe and Western Russia, weather conditions between October 2020 and January 2021 were as follows: rainfall was 10% below average, RADPAR was 3% below average and temperatures were 0.9°C above the 15-year average.

According to the Crop Watch analyses, below-average rainfall was observed for large portions of the MPZ. There were three main patterns: (1) The west part (29.0%) of the MPZ had a above average rainfall in October, followed by below average rainfall in November to mid December；Subsequently, it received above average rainfall again，This area included southern Belarus, western Ukraine and Moldova, and most of Romania and Poland; (2) For 71.1% of the MPZ, which covered Central and Eastern Ukraine, as well as Russia, rainfall stayed below average until mid December. (3) From mid-early December to mid-early January 2021, rainfall in more than 80% of the MPZ was above average.

The temperatures of the MPZ were 0.9°C above average during this monitoring period. According to its departure map, the temperature in the MPZ fluctuated dramatically, but followed the same general pattern: Above normal temperatures in October until early November, followed by below average temperatures until early December.Subsequently, temperatures were above average, excpept for a cold spell in mid January.

The biomass production potential in the main productive areas of Moldova, southern Romania, eastern Ukraine and south-western Russia was generally higher than average (6% higher than the recent 15-year average). The spatial distribution of biomass accumulation potential departure indicated the above-average condition in most of the eastern part of MPZ, and below-average condition in Central Russia, mainly the Volga region. From October to January, the proportion of cultivated land is 73% (1.18% higher than the recent 5-year average). Uncropped arable land was mostly located in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia. The VCIx for the Central Europe and western Russia MPZ reached a value of 0.84, the areas with high VCI values (>0.8) were mainly distributed in the west, central and north of Russia. Areas with a VCI below 0.5 were mainly found in the southeast of the main production areas, which is consistent with the uncropped arable land map.

In general, the crops in the MPZ grow better than average, but more rainfall will be needed in the coming winter months to ensure vigorous crop development.

Figure 2.6 Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, October 2020-January 2021.

a. Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles                                b. Profiles of rainfall departure from average (mm)

c. Spatial distribution of temperature profiles                        d. Profiles of temperature departure from average (℃)

e. Biomass accumulation potential departure               f. Cropped arable land   

g. Maximum VCI                                                           h. VHI Minimum