3.1 Overview

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries, are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro- ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well.

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 166 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

1. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tonnes of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans respectively. The United Stats and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops.

Maize: Harvest in the Northern Hemisphere was completed by last October. Its production conditions were discussed and summarized in the November 2020 bulletin. In the Southern Hemispheres, maize planting started at the beginning of the rainy season in November and December. In Brazil, however, most maize is sown as a second crop towards the end of the rainy season, after soybean harvest in February. The dry conditions in September and October delayed planting of soybean. This in turn may delay harvest of soybean and subsequent sowing of maize. However, rainfall situation during soybean harvest and sowing of the 2nd maize crop in February are important factors as well, determining the yield potential for the 2nd maize crop. Full season maize was sown in October in Brazil. In Argentina, the second largest maize exporter, closely followed by Brazil in 3rd position, growth conditions were not favorable due to below average precipitation. Mexico's maize production is also forecasted to drop below last year's levels, due to drought conditions. Maize production in Southern Africa, where rainfall conditions were rather favorable, is expected to increase. In South- and South-East Asia, conditions for winter maize production have been rather favorable as well.

Rice: Harvest of rainfed rice in China, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and South-East Asia was completed by December. Rainfall in South-East Asia returned to normal levels, aided by several typhoons. They caused local damage only. Nevertheless, rice output from Asian countries is expected to remain stable. Production in the other parts of the world is minor in relation to Asia. It is expected to remain stable in Nigeria and West Africa as a whole, while production in Argentina is forecasted to decline because of drier than normal conditions. In Brazil, conditions for rice production were average. Overall, rice production remains stable.

Wheat: Sowing of winter wheat in the Northern Hemisphere took place between September and October. Most of Europe, South Asia and China experienced favorable conditions for germination and establishment before the wintering phase of wheat. The Caucasus and Volga region of Russia, as well as parts of Central Asia suffered from drought conditions. Rainfall during early spring will determine the production potential of wheat in those regions, as wheat might compensate through tillering until the beginning of stem elongation. In North America, conditions were mixed: The West, as well as Colorado and north-west Oklahoma suffered from drought conditions. Conditions were more favorable for the other important winter wheat production regions in Kansas, Texas and Ontario in Canada. In Mexico, the lack of water for irrigation also caused a reduction in the wheat area sown. Last year, the Maghreb suffered from severe drought conditions. This year, rainfall returned to close to average levels. Conditions are also normal in the Levant and the Ukraine, where average wheat production can be expected. All in all, conditions for winter wheat have been rather favorable so far.

Soybean: Soybeans are predominantly grown during the respective summer months in both hemispheres. Brazil, together with the USA the main soybean exporter, keeps expanding the potential land area for soybean production. Its current area is about 38 million ha. Last year, aided by the drought conditions, it was able to clear close to one million hectares of forest land. However, soybean production in Brazil during this monitoring period has been hampered by lack of rainfall: The drought conditions, which persisted until October, delayed the planting of soybeans. This will also impact the timely planting of maize, which is often sown as a second crop after soybean. The drought conditions in Argentina were more severe than in Brazil and production is forecasted to drop more in Argentina than in Brazil. Therefore, soybean production has been negatively impacted by drier than usual conditions in South America. 

3. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes 

(1) Rainfall (Figure 3.1)

Most of Brazil's regions that produce crops for export were affected by lower-than-average precipitation. In the Parana basin, Mato Grosso as well as the Central Savannas, the rainy season started later than usual. Abundant rains in early November helped get the crops established, but subsequently, rainfalls stayed more than 30% below the 15YA. In Argentina's major maize and soybean production regions, above-average rainfall occurred in late October. Otherwise, conditions remained drier than usual. In Central America, hurricanes helped increase the total precipitation to above average levels by more than 30%. In Mexico and the South-West of the USA, average rainfall was between 10 and 30% below average. Because of the drier than usual summer months, the reservoirs, which are used for the production of irrigated maize and wheat and vegetables in Mexico, have low water levels. Farmers therefore had to reduce maize and wheat acreage. The west coast, as well as the Rocky Mountain region of the USA has experienced a prolonged and severe drought, with rainfall more than 30% below average. Below average precipitation was also observed for the other regions of the USA and Canada during this monitoring period. These conditions helped the harvest of the summer crops and sowing of winter wheat. Moisture levels were still sufficient to get the crops well established. The south of Africa experienced above average rainfall, which was favorable for the production of maize and other crops. Algeria and Tunisia experienced moderate drought conditions, while rainfall in Morocco and the Levant was close to average. In Turkey, the winter rains started late, but recovered to average levels in the meantime. For the Ukraine, average rainfall conditions were recorded. Central Russia, as well as the Volga region, experienced drier than normal conditions, and winter wheat grown in these regions will depend on good spring rains in order to compensate for the poor growth before the wintering phase. The same goes for Central Asia, where the precipitation deficit was even more severe. Southern India, as well as South East Asia received above average rainfall. This was crucial for the winter rice producing countries, such as Vietnam and Thailand, as they had been affected by droughts during the previous monitoring periods. Apart from irrigated winter wheat, hardly any crops are grown in China during this monitoring period. Therefore, the low rainfall has had limited effects on China's food production. South East Australia received abundant rainfall, putting an end to the prolonged drought.

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of October 2020 to January 2021 total relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in percent.

(2) Temperature anomalies (Figure 3.2) 

Only Central Asia experienced temperatures that were more than 1.5°C below the 15YA. Most of North America was at least 0.5°C warmer than average. The largest positive departures, by more than 1.5°C were recorded for the Dakotas and the Central Prairies. Mato Grosso and Central Brazil also experienced much warmer temperatures. Positive departures were also recorded for the Scandinavian countries, eastern Europe and the Levant. The north of China, as well as Laos and Vietnam experienced temperatures that were 0.5 to 1.5°C below the 15YA.

Figure 3.2 National and subnational temperatute rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of October 2020 to January 2021 average relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in °C

(3) RADPAR anomalies (Figure 3.3) 

Higher solar radiation increases photosynthesis and thus crop production potential and yields. Mexico and the western half of the USA experienced above average solar radiation, whereas in the eastern half, below average conditions were observed. In South America, the Andean countries with the exception of Chile received below average solar radiation. In Brazil, the South East received more than 3% above average solar radiation, and the rest of the country was near average. Most of Africa had a negative departure, with southern Africa observing the largest ones. All of Europe received less sunshine. The drought-stricken Volga region of Russia as well as the Central Asian countries experienced above average solar radiation. India, as well as China, South-East Asia and Eastern Australia received below average solar radiation. 

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of October 2020 to January 2021 total relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in percent.

(4) Biomass accumulation potential BIOMSS (Figure 3.4)

The BIOMSS indicator is controlled by temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. In some regions, rainfall is more limiting, whereas in other ones, mainly the tropical ones, solar radiation tends to be the limiting factor. During this monitoring period, positive departures were observed for the crop production regions of Argentina, eastern Brazil and the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Conditions were less favorable for the South-West of the USA, Mexico, Central America and all the South American countries along the Pacific Ocean. Almost all of Africa and Western Europe experienced below average conditions for biomass production. Central Russia had more favorable conditions. Almost all of Asia had below average conditions, including the South-East Asian countries. Below average biomass production was also estimated for South-East Australia.

Figure 3.4 National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of October 2020 to January 2021 total relative to the 2006-2020 average (15YA), in percent.