According to the phenology calendar, wheat and barley got harvested during the current period. The remote sensing based NDVI profiles showed generally favorable conditions, as the crop conditions were close to the maximum of the last 5 years. Based on the spatial NDVI patterns, 32.2% of the croplands had positive NDVI departures from October to November, while 11.2% were positive during the whole period. 

The agroclimatic indicators showed little variation when compared to the 15YA. The rainfall increased by 7%, accompanied by average temperatures (-0.1℃). Both the radiation and potential accumulated biomass decreased by 4%. The CALF increased by 12% and the maximum VCI was 0.78. Combining the agronomic and agroclimatic indicators, conditions for cereal production were favorable for Australia.

Regional analysis 

This analysis adopts five agro-ecological regions for Australia, namely the Arid and Semi-arid Zone, Southeastern Wheat Zone, Sub-humid Subtropical Zone, Southwestern Wheat Zone, Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone. The Arid and Semi-arid Zone, in which hardly any crop production takes place, was not analyzed.

The crop condition in the Southeastern wheat zone showed close- to-maximum crop conditions during the entire period. The rainfall was greatly above average (+32%), and the temperature (-0.5°C), sunshine (-7%), and biomass (-5%) were all moderately below average. The CALF was 78%, increased by 18% compared to 5YA, while the maximum VCI was 0.88. The crop conditions in this zone were very favorable.

The NDVI profiles in the Sub-humid subtropical zone showed average conditions from October to December, and then better than the maximum of the past years in January. The rainfall in this zone was below average (-25%), the temperature was slightly warmer (+0.2°C), and both the sunshine (-2%) and biomass (-2%) were slightly lower. The CALF was largely improved (+65%) and the VCIx was 0.76. The crop conditions in this zone were average.

The Southwest wheat zone showed below-average conditions, because the weather was drier than normal (RAIN, 82mm, -27%). The temperature (-0.1°C), sunshine (-1%) and biomass (+1%) were all near average. The CALF largely decreased (-16%) and VCIx was 0.86. The production in this zone is below average.

The Wet temperate and subtropical zone had NDVI values that exceeded the maximum of the past 5 years from October to December and then dropped to the average. The rainfall was above average (+20%), temperatures were cooler (-0.2°C), and both the sunshine (-6%) and biomass (-9%) were below average. The CALF was 98% and VCIx was 0.93. The conditions for this zone were favorable.

Figure 3.8. Australia crop condition, October 2020 – January 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (e)NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semiarid zone (left) and Southeastern wheat area (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone (left) and Southwestern wheat area (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Wet temperate and subtropical zone)

(i)Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right))