Winter wheat, which was sown in October, is the major crop in the field during this monitoring period. Agro-climatic conditions had obviously increased rainfall compared to average, especially in central and southern region with much more rainy weather than before (RAIN 292 mm or 5%, TEMP 2.0°C or +1.2°C above average, RADPAR 126 MJ/m² equivalent to a -23%). Nearly all the arable land was cropped (CALF at about 100%) and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was high (1.0). Weather based projected potential biomass decreased by 11%.

At the national level, NDVI was below average in October, and started to exceed the 5YA in November but declined in December. The NDVI development graph indicates that crop condition had gradually recovered to the level of the 5-year average starting in October. Crop condition in about 86.1% cropped area was close to or above the 5-year average, in agreement with the national VCIx map. According to the spatial distribution maps, VCIx was satisfactory in most areas of the country (>0.8). There was an apparent drop in NDVI profiles in most of the areas from December to January, the reason for this might be ice and snow cover. Agronomic conditions for crops were generally favorable for Belarus.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are provided, including Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, the northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus (Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev) was higher than average for rainfall (3%), and with slightly increased temperature (+1.3°C) but apparent deficit radiation (-20%). Agronomic indicators showed satisfactory values: 100% for CALF and 1.00 for VCIx. Crop condition is good.

In Central Belarus, the regions of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev recorded rainfall 6% higher than reference values, and higher temperature (+1.0°C) but lower radiation (-25%). The BIOMSS is projected to decrease by 15%. Fully cropped arable land (CALF at 100%) and a VCIx value of 0.99 were observed, in summary overall situation was favorable for winter crops.

The Southern Belarus (southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions) experienced the same agro-climatic condition as Northern and Central area. Higher rainfall (+10%) and higher temperature (+1.0°C) were recorded. But radiation deficit (-23%) might have negative impact on the crops. The BIOMSS is projected to decrease by 14%. Favorable agronomic indicators (CALF 100%, VCIx 1.00) were observed, the growth status in the following season needs close attention.

Figure 3.10 Belarus’s crop condition, October 2020- January 2021.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA               (e) NDVI profiles

(f)Rainfall time series 

(g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

Table 3.11 Belarus's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020- January 2021.

Table 3.Table 3.12 Belarus's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2020- January 2021.