During the monitoring period, the harvest of maize in the North-East and the harvest of wheat in Central to Southern Brazil were concluded. The reporting period also covers the sowing to early growth stages of maize, rice, and soybean. Generally, crop conditions in Brazil were below average compared to the previous five years mainly due to the insufficient rainfall.

Nationwide, agro-climatic indicators show below average conditions with close-to-average RADPAR, 0.9°C higher temperatures but significantly below-average rainfall at 584 mm, 37% below the 15YA. Dry and hot weather dominated almost all of Brazil. Only four states, namely Santa Catarina, Rio De Janeiro, Espirito Santo, and Roraima recorded above-average rainfall at 4%, 6%, 8% and 59% above the 15YA. All the other states presented less-than-normal rainfall with departures ranging from 8% below average in Amazonas to 67% below average in Rio Grande Do Norte. States in Central and Northeast Brazil were commonly observed with more than 30% water deficit compared with 15YA. Meanwhile, the temperature in Central, South and East coast of Brazil presented well above-average temperature which accelerate the water loss and hampered the development of crops. Large positive departures of temperature (more than +1.0°C) were found in several major agriculture states including Parana, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso, Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso Do Sul, and Goias. RADPAR in general was close to average in most states, resulting in moderate departures of potential BIOMSS, ranging from -12% in Santa Catarina to +10% in Distrito Federal.

The start of the monsoon rains was delayed due to La Niña conditions and therefore, crops got established late as well. Constrained by the dry and hot weather, the crops in Brazil were in below-average conditions throughout this monitoring period, as shown by the NDVI development profiles. NDVI departure clustering maps and profiles also presented below-average conditions except for the Nordeste zone and scattered areas in northern Minas Gerais. As illustrated by the VCIx map, high VCIx values were also distributed in Nordeste zone and scattered areas in northern Minas Gerais. They coincided with the areas with above-average NDVI values. National VCIx was 0.93 and CALF was 2% above average, reaching 98%. Lowest VCIx values were concentrated in Northeast Brazil, covering Rio Grande Do Norte, Ceara, and Paraiba with VCIx values at 0.62, 0.63, and 0.67, repectively. CALF for all states remained at or above average level. The outputs of summer crops including maize, rice and soybean still depend on the weather conditions in the coming months. If the dry and hot weather persists, the yield of summer crops will be below average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. These include the Central Savanna, the east coast, Parana river, Amazon zone, Mato Grosso zone, Subtropical rangeland zone, mixed forest and farmland, and the Nordeste. Over the recent reporting period, all zones received well below-average rainfall except for Coast Zone where rainfall was just 1% below the 15YA. Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, Mato Grosso, and Parana basin presented below average crop conditions throughout the monitoring period mainly due to insufficient rainfall. Rainfall recovered to close to average level in Mato Gross Zone which might be beneficial for the second maize sown in January and February. Crops in the Coast zone stayed close to average as the rainfall was near average. Although total rainfall in Central Savanna during the last four months was 49% below average, high rainfall in October benefitted the sowing and emergence of the crops. Changes were found in Nordeste and Southern subtropical rangelands zones during the reporting period. Thanks to the significantly above-average rainfall during the sowing period, crops conditions exceeded the last 5 years' optimal condition but dropped to below average since early January mainly due to the continuously below-average rainfall conditions, starting in early November 2020. In contrast, crops in Southern subtropical rangelands stayed below average, suffering from drought, but recovered to average levels as they benefitted from high rainfall in late November to early December, and mid- to late January.

Considering the average or above average CALF in all zones, crop planted area remained near average or above average. CropWatch will keep tracking the weather conditions and crop developments. Assessments of crop product will be further revised in May Bulletin.

Figure 3.11. Brazil crop condition, October 2020- January 2021

a. Phenology of major crops

b. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

c. Time series rainfall profile

(d) Maximum VCI

(e) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Central Savanna

(g) Time series rainfall profile of Central Savanna

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of East Coast

(i) Time series rainfall profile of East Coast

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Mato Grosso Zone

(k) Time series rainfall profile of Mato Grosso Zone

(L) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Nordeste

(m) Time series rainfall profile of Nordeste

(n) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Northeastern mixed forest and farmland

(o) Time series rainfall profile of Northeastern mixed forest and farmland

(p) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Parana river basin

(q) Time series rainfall profile of Parana river basin

(r) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of subtropical rangelands

(s) Time series rainfall profile of subtropical rangelands

Table 3.13  Brazil agro-climatic and agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from average, October 2020 to January 2021

Table 3.14 Brazil’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2020 - January 2021