During this reporting period, the summer crops such as maize, rice and cotton were harvested, followed by the sowing of winter wheat in November. The CropWatch agro-climatic indicators showed that rain and temperature were 1% and 1°C above the 15 years average (15YA), respectively. According to the rainfall profile, high rainfall was observed in November, Mid-December, and Mid-January, which exceeded the 15YA. The temperature profile fluctuated around the 15YA.  It was higher than the 15YA during October and January. Both solar radiation and biomass were below the 15YA (RADPAR -1%, BIOMSS -18%). In general, the nationwide NDVI profile was below the 5YA crop conditions during October and subsequently it was close to the 5YA during the remaining period. The NDVI spatial pattern shows that 40.4% of the cultivated area was above the 5YA, 25.4% was below the 5YA, and 34.2% fluctuated around the 5YA. For the whole country, VCIx value was 0.84 and the CALF exceeded the 5YA by 5% indicating favourable crop conditions.

Regional Analysis

Egypt can be subdivided into three agro-ecological zones (AEZs) based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions. Only two of them are relevant for crops: 1) the Nile Delta and the Mediterranean coastal strip and 2) the Nile Valley. All agro-climatic indicators measured for these two agro‐ecological zones are consistent with the national trend. Rainfall was 5% above the 15YA in the first AEZ while it was 51% below the 15YA in the second zone. Temperatures in both zones were at near 1°C above the 15YA. Solar radiation (RADPAR) and biomass were were below the 15YA. For the Nile Delta and Mediterranean coastal strip, CALF was up by 4% and VCIx at 0.88 while in the Nile Valley, CALF was up by 5% and VCIx at 0.87. In both zones, The NDVI-based crop condition development graphs were very similar to the nationwide NDVI profile. Since most of the agricultural land in Egypt is irrigated, the rainfall had little impact on the production levels of maize and rice. However, additional water usually has a beneficial effect. It should be noted that unusually high amounts of rainfall occurred during November which may have slightly delayed the sowing of winter wheat.  All in all, the conditions for winter wheat have been favorable so far.

Figure 3.14 Egypt’s crop condition, October 2020 - January 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA(e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Nile Delta (left) and Nile Valley (right)

(g) Time series profile of rainfall (h) Time series profile of temperature

Table 3.19 Egypt's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020 - January 2021

Table 3.20 Egypt's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2020 - January 2021