This report for the monitoring period from October 2020 to January 2021 includes the harvest of the major Meher crops maize, wheat, barley and teff. At the national scale, sunny weather and less rainfall were beneficial for the harvest. Compared to the 15YA, rainfall was below average by 22%, and temperature and RADPAR were close to the average. Due to the low rainfall, the calculated biomass was 28% lower than the 15-year average level. As rainfall had been abundant during the previous monitoring period, no negative impact of the drier-than-usual conditions on yield are expected. The drier conditions were actually beneficial for the harvest.  The NDVI cluster map shows that NDVI values were close to the average. The Maximum VCI graph shows that the VCI value of most areas of the country was higher than 0.8, except for the northern Amhara state, where the VCI was lower. It ranged between 0.5 and 0.8. Based on the good crop condition described in the previous report, favorable crop production for Ethiopia can be expected.

Regional analysis

The main rain-fed cereal producing areas include the Southeastern mixed-maize zone, Western mixed maize zone, and the Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone.

In the Semi‐arid pastoral areas, a typical livestock production zone, the rainfall was below average (-43%). Temperature and RADPAR were close to the average (TEMP +0.2°C, RADPAR -1%), and the biomass dropped by 36%. At the same time, the NDVI values were lower than the average, and the VCI was 0.84. Compared with the 5-year average, the CALF had increased by 52%. Overall, the prospects for livestock production were average.

The Southeastern Mendebo highlands are a major maize and teff producing area. During the reporting period, the rainfall in the region was below average (-40%). The temperature was slightly lower (-0.5°C), the RADPAR remained unchanged, and the biomass (-29%) was lower than the 15-year average. CALF remained unchanged, and the VCI was 0.96. The NDVI crop condition development graph shows that NDVI was slightly lower than the 5-year average. In general, the conditions for growth and harvest of maize and teff in the Southeast High Area were favorable.

In South-eastern mixed maize zone, the average rainfall was 35% lower than the 15-year average. The temperature and RADPAR (+1%) were constant. Because of lower precipitation, the biomass was below average (-21%). The NDVI crop condition development graph was close to the 5-year average, the VCI was 0.92, and the CALF had increased by 6%. The crop growing conditions in this area were average.

In the Western mixed maize zone, maize is the most important crop grown during the Meher season. Rainfall (-10%) was slightly lower than the 15-year average, while the lower temperature (-0.4°C) and RADPAR (-3%) resulted in lower biomass estimates that were 20% below the 15-year average. The VCI was 0.97, and the CALF increased slightly (+1%). According to CorpWatch indicators, crop conditions were normal.

Central-northern maize-teff highlands is an important maize and teff producing area in Ethiopia. Precipitation (-35%) was lower than the 15-year average, while temperature (-0.4°C) and RADPAR (-2%) were slightly lower than the average. The estimated biomass decreased by 10%, and the VCI was 0.97. All in all the prospects for teff and maize crops were average.

Figure 3.15 Ethiopia's crop condition, October 2020-January 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

 (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                             (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                 (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Time series rainfall                                                                             (g) Time series temperature

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi‐arid pastoral (left) South‐eastern Mendebo highlands (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South‐eastern mixed maize zone (left) and South‐eastern mixed maize zone (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central‐northern maize‐teff highlands

Table 3.21. Ethiopia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020-January 2021

Table 3.22. Ethiopia’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2020-January 2021