The planting of winter wheat, winter barley, and rapeseed took place between September and November. The NDVI development curves fluctuated widely, but the NDVI values generally trended below average. Rainfall for the country was above average (RAIN, +20%), radiation was below average (RADPAR, -13%) and temperature was slightly below average (TEMP, -0.3°C). The below-average radiation resulted in a below-average biomass (BIOMSS, -16%). The seasonal RAIN profile shows that the rainfall was generally above average, and exceeded the 15-year maximum in early October and late October, as well as in mid-January. The TEMP profile shows that temperature fluctuated widely around the average.

The national average VCIx was 0.93. CALF (100%) was unchanged compared to its five-year average. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 34.7% of arable land experienced average crop conditions, mainly in Southwest England, Southeast England and East of England. (2) 23.9% of arable land experienced slightly below-average crop conditions, in Southwest and East of England. (3) 10.7% of arable land scattered around Scotland, Northwest England, Wales and Southwest England, had slightly below-average crop conditions before a marked drop in January. (4) 5.8% of arable land experienced slightly below-average crop conditions from October to early November before a marked drop in mid-November, and subsequently recovered to average in mid-December, mainly in Southeast England (West Sussex, East Sussex). (5) 24.9% of arable land experienced slightly below-average crop conditions from October to December before a marked drop in early January, and subsequently recovered to slightly below-average in late January, mainly in Yorkshire and the Humber, East Midlands (Lincoinshire), East of England (Suffolk) and Southeast England (Kent). Most likely, the large drops of NDVI can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images and on snow. Altogether, the conditions for winter wheat in the UK are assessed as normal.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national regions are described below: Northern barley region, Central sparse crop region and Southern mixed wheat and barley region. All three sub-regions are characterized by an unchanged fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) compared to the 5YA.

In the Northern barley region, NDVI was below average or close to average. Rainfall was above average (RAIN +10%), radiation (RADPAR -8%) and temperature (TEMP -0.3°C) were below average. Biomass was down 9% compared to average. The VCIx was 0.94.

The Central sparse crop region is one of the country's major agricultural regions in terms of crop production.  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI is similar to the northern barley region. Rainfall was above average (RAIN +21%), radiation (RADPAR -13%) and temperature (TEMP -0.2°C) were below average. Biomass（BIOMSS -15%）was below average. The VCIx was 0.95.

In the Southern mixed wheat and barley zone, NDVI was below average or close to average. This region experienced the largest rainfall excess (RAIN +30%), while radiation (RADPAR -16%) and temperature (TEMP -0.3°C) were below average. The below-average radiation and temperature resulted in the below-average biomass (BIOMSS -19%).  The VCIx was 0.92.

Figure 3.17 United Kingdom crop condition, October 2020-January 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Barley region (left) and Central sparse crop region (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern mixed wheat and Barley zone)

Table 3.25 United Kingdom's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020-January 2021

Table 3.26 United Kingdom's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, October 2020-January 2021