During the monitoring period, the harvest of the dry season maize was completed. The rainy season maize was sown and grown in Java and Sumatra. Correspondingly, main season rice was planted while the second rice on Java reached maturity and was harvested. 

Temperature (TEMP +0.0°C) was near average, while rainfall (RAIN -4%) and radiation (RADPAR -2%) were below average, which led to a reduction of the biomass production potential (BIOMSS -3%). 

According to the regional NDVI development graph, crop conditions were slightly below average. However, cloud cover in the satellite images caused some outliers, and thus the spatial distribution map needs to be interpreted with care and has limited value. Considering that the area of cropped arable land in the country was close to the 5YA and the VCIx value of 0.99, the crop conditions can be anticipated to be close to, but slightly below average.

Regional analysis

The analysis below focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90), the main agricultural region in the country, Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91) and West Papua (93), among which the first three are relevant for crop production. The numbers correspond to the labels on the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

The weather over Java was relatively wet.  Rainfall was above average (RAIN +16%), whereas radiation (RADPAR -4%) and temperature (TEMP -0.1°C) were below the 15YA, resulting in biomass production potential (BIOMSS -1%) slightly lower than average. Both CALF and VCIx were near the maximum. Overall, the late crop conditions in Java were slightly below average.

In Kalimantan and Sulawesi region, rainfall (RAIN -8%) was below average while temperature (TEMP +0.1°C) and radiation (RADPAR, +0%) were close to the 15YA, which led to a reduction in biomass production potential (BIOMSS -1%). According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were slightly below the 5YA except for the end of October and the start of November. Overall, the crop conditions were slightly below average.

In Sumatra area, rainfall (RAIN -15%) was significantly lower than the 15YA while temperature (TEMP +0.1°C) and radiation (RADPAR +0%) were close to average, which resulting in a biomass production potential (BIOMSS -1%) that was close to the 5YA. According to NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below the 5YA average except for the middle of October. Hence, Crop conditions might be slightly lower than average.

Figure 3.19 Indonesia’s crop condition, October 2020 - January 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                           (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                        (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Java (left)  and Kalimantan-Sulawesi (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sumatra)

Table 3.29 Indonesia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020 - January 2021

Table 3.30 Indonesia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2020 - January 2021