The current monitoring period covers the late growth and harvest of Kharif (summer) maize, rice and soybean, and the planting and early growth of Rabi (winter) rice and wheat. The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop conditions were close to or above the average in general, except in October, indicating that the crop conditions for Rabi rice and wheat were favorable at the national level.

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that nationwide TEMP (+0.3°C) was close to average, whereas RADPAR was slightly below the 15YA (-4%). India recorded abundant RAIN (+8%) after October, which exceeded the 15-year average for the same monitoring period. The low radiation resulted in a BIOMSS decrease by 8% compared with the 15YA. Moreover, the overall VCIx was high, with a value of 0.87. As can be seen from the spatial distribution, only the Northwest recorded values below 0.80. Most of India had high VCIx values. These spatial patterns of VCIx were thus generally consistent with those of NDVI. Almost all areas experienced continuously above-average crop conditions after November. The spatial distribution of NDVI profiles shows that after December, 35.8% of the areas recorded below-average crop conditions in the eastern and northeastern regions. CALF increased by 4% compared to the 5YA.

With the exception of a few areas, the crop conditions in all parts of India were favorable. During the last monitoring period, the crops in some areas were affected by excessive rainfall and flooding, but the general situation has turned favorable. Crop production for this season is estimated to be above average at the national level.

Regional analysis

India is divided into eight agro-ecological zones: the Deccan Plateau (94), the Eastern coastal region (95), the Gangetic plain (96), Assam and north-eastern regions (97), Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (98), the Western coastal region (99), the North-western dry region (100) and the Western Himalayan region (101).

The four agro-ecological zones of the Deccan Plateau, the Eastern coastal region, Assam and north-eastern regions, and the North-western dry region show similar trends in agricultural indices. Compared to the same period of previous years, RAIN had increased significantly, especially in the Assam and north-eastern regions (more than +20%). Although TEMP and RADPAR were lower, abundant rainfall did not compensate for their effects and caused BIOMSS to be much lower than the 15-year average. However, CALF showed different trends. The highest increases had been observed for the Deccan Plateau and agricultural areas in North-western dry region (+76%). The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop growth of these four agro-ecological regions during this monitoring period exceeded the 5-year maximum in most months. Generally, the crop production is expected to be above average.

The Agriculture areas in Rajastan and Gujarat and the Western coastal region recorded similar trends of agricultural indices in this monitoring period. Compared to the same period of the previous years, RAIN had increased by more than 10%. TEMP was slightly above average (+0.1°C). Below-average RADPAR caused a decrease in BIOMSS. Both regions recorded increases of CALF (+1%). VCIx was above 0.82. The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop growth for the two regions exceeded the 5-year average. The crop production is expected to be above average.

The Gangatic plain region recorded 64 mm of RAIN, which was 33% below average. TEMP was at 18.9°C (+0.5°C), and RADPAR was slightly below the 15YA at 941 MJ/m² (-2%). BIOMSS was below the 5YA (-27%) due to less rainfall. CALF reached 98% which was an increase by 2% over the 5-year average, and VCIx was 0.88. The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop growth of this region during this monitoring period exceeded the 5-year average in most months. Generally, the crop production is expected to be above average.

The Western Himalayan region recorded 132 mm of RAIN, which was below average (-11%). TEMP was at 7.7°C (-0.6°C) and RADPAR was at 890 MJ/m² (-3%). BIOMSS was significantly below the 5YA (-36%) due to less solar radiation. CALF reached 94% which was slightly above average (+1%), and VCIx was 0.83. The outlook of crop production in this region is slightly unfavorable due to the low radiation and rainfall.

Figure 3.20 India's crop condition, October 2020 - January 2021

                                                (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

                (f)  Temperature profiles                                              (g) Rainfall profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Deccan Plateau (left) and Eastern Coastal Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Gangetic Plains (left) and Assam and north-eastern regions (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (left) and Western Coastal Region (right))

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North-western dry region (left) and Western Himalayan Region (right))

Table 3.31. India’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020 - January 2021

Table 3.32. India’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2020 - January 2021