During the monitoring period, crop conditions were generally below average except for early October according to the NDVI profile. The planting of winter wheat was completed in November. Precipitation and radiation were both below average (RAIN -12%, RADPAR -2%), while temperature was near average as compared to the 15YA. The unfavorable agro-climatic conditions resulted in a decrease in the BIOMSS index by 25% as compared to the 15YA. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) increased by 10% compared to the recent five-year average and the national average of maximum VCI index was 0.68.

According to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, approximately 12.7% of the cropland (marked in red) had above average crop conditions during the whole monitoring period, mainly located in Khuzestan province and some parts in East Azerbaijan and Ardabil provinces. The crop conditions of roughly 46.2% of the croplands, marked in light green, were near average during the whole monitoring period. 17.5% of the cropland (marked in orange) in the provinces of Mazandaran, Golestan and East Azerbaijan had slightly below-average crop conditions before mid-December, and then droped further. It is worth mentioning that for 23.7% of the croplands, large variations were observed. This might have been due to the effect of cloud cover in the satellite images and snow. Affected areas were mainly distributed in northwestern regions and some parts in northern regions, including the provinces of Ardabil, Zanjan, Qazvin, Mazandaran, West Azerbaijan, and Semnan.

Overall, the early crop condition for winter crops was unfavorable for the current season due to the drier-than-normal conditons, especially in October. The final outcome of the season will be determined by soil moisture availabiliyt in March when vegetative growth will resume in the rainfed regions. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crop cultivation. The two regions are referred to as the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north, and the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains. 

In the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region, crop conditions were above average at the beginning of the monitoring period, and then slid to below average until the end of the monitoring period. Temperature was 0.1°C above average, the accumulated rainfall was 177 mm (12% below average), and radiation was also slightly below average (RADPAR -3%). The unfavorable weather conditions resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS by 21% compared to the recent 15-year average. The CALF increased by 3%, and the average VCIx (0.69) was rather low. Crop conditions were slightly unfavorable.

The Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region received 141 mm rainfall during this reporting period, 9% below the 15YA average (RAIN -9%). Temperature was 0.4°C above the average. The lack of rainfall caused the 13% decrease of BIOMSS. The CALF increased by 46% compared to the 5YA, reflecting that more land was cultivated. The average VCIx of this region was 0.71. Crop conditions were slightly unfavorable.

Figure 3.21 Iran's crop condition, October 2020 - January 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Time series rainfall profile

(d) Time series temperature profile                               (e)  Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                   (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region (left) and Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region (right))

Table 3.33. Iran's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020-January 2021

Table 3.34. Iran's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, October 2020-January 2021