This report covers the sowing of winter wheat in October and November. According to the crop condition development graph, NDVI values were close to average from October to November, below average in December and above average in late January. 

The overall rainfall in this period was above average (RAIN +18%) while the temperature was 0.4°C below the 15YA. Adequate rainfall was mainly due to above-average rainfall in early December, late December, early January and late January. Especially in early December, the entire country experienced high rainfall, which exceeded the 15-year maximum. 

The favorable soil moisture conditions allowed for proper crop establishment before winter. The RADPAR was 6% below the 15YA. Estimated biomass for the country was 12% below the 15YA. 

The national average VCIx was 0.92. CALF (95%) had increased by 5% compared to its five-year average. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 46.9% of arable land experienced above-average crop conditions, scattered around Sardinia and Sicily, middle Italy and the east coast. (2) 45.6% of arable land experienced slightly below-average crop conditions, scattered around the east coast, northern and southern Italy. (3) 3.3% of arable land, mainly in Northwest Italy, had slightly above-average crop conditions before a marked drop in late December. (4) 1.6% of arable land experienced average crop conditions from October to late November before a marked drop in late November, mainly in North Italy. (5) 2.7% of arable land, mainly in North Italy, experienced above-average crop conditions from October to early December, and then had a marked drop in mid-December. Most likely, the large drops can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images and snow. CropWatch estimates that crop conditions were satisfactory for this monitoring period. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Italy. These four regions are East coast, Po Valley, Islands and Western Italy.

On the East coast, rainfall was higher by 6%, while temperature and RADPAR were lower by 0.1°C and 4% respectively and potential biomass was 13% lower than the average of the last 15 years. Higher rainfall mainly occurred after mid-November, while the NDVI was near average in the monitoring period. VCIx in the subregion reached 0.88, CALF was close to 88%. It was 6% lower than the average of the last 5 years. In general, crop growth was satisfactory.

In Po Valley, rainfall was above average by 22%, while temperature and RADPAR were lower by 0.5°C and 7% respectively and potential biomass was 14% lower than the average of the last 15 years. Higher rainfall mainly occurred after early December, whereas the NDVI was below average starting in mid-December. VCIx in the subregion reached 0.92. CALF experienced a 10% increase compared to the 5YA. Overall, agronomic conditions were favorable for crop growth in this area.

Compared to the average of the last 15 years, rainfall on the Islands was significantly lower by 18%, temperature, RADPAR and BIOMSS were lower by 0.2°C, 2% and 11%, respectively. Although rainfall exceeded the maximum level of the past 15 years in early December, it could not fully compensate for the general rainfall deficit. VCIx in the subregion reached 0.92. CALF experienced a 1% increase compared to the 5YA. During this monitoring period, agronomic conditions were slighly unfavorable for the islands.

In Western Italy, rainfall was higher by 23%, while temperature and RADPAR were lower by 0.4°C and 8% respectively and potential biomass was 12% lower than the average of the last 15 years. Higher rainfall mainly occurred in early December, late December, early January and late January, while the NDVI was above but close to average during this monitoring period. VCIx in the subregion reached 0.94. CALF experienced a 1% increase compared to 5YA. Overall, agronomic conditions were favorable for crop growth in this area.

Figure 3.22 Italy's crop condition, October 2020-January 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(a). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Italy). 

(b). Maximum VCI

(c). Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles.

(d). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (East Italy).

(e). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Po Valley).

(f). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Islands ).             

(g). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (West Italy).

Table 3.35 Italy's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020-January 2021

Table 3.36 Italy's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2020-January 2021