No crops were cultivated in most of the country during this monitoring period, except for some minor winter crops planted in the southern regions. They were sown in October. Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated rainfall and temperature were both below average (RAIN -31%, TEMP -1.2°C), while radiation was slightly above average (RADPAR +1%). Furthermore, most dekadal precipitation was below average except for early and late October, as well as for mid and late of November. Unfavorable agro-climatic conditions resulted in a decrease in estimated BIOMSS by 7%. According to the NDVI profiles, the national average NDVI values were lower than 0.3 starting from November because of freezing conditions.

Overall, the agro-climate conditions were unfavorable in the monitoring period. However, planting of spring wheat will start in May only, so there is ample of time to compensate for the precipitation deficit of this monitoring period.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Kazakhstan, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: the Northern region (112), the Eastern plateau and southeastern region (111) and the South region (110).

In the Northern region, the accumulated precipitation (RAIN -20%) and temperature (TEMP -0.6°C) were below average, while RADPAR was close to average.

Agro-climatic conditions in the Eastern plateau and southeastern region were unfavorable because of below average rainfall (RAIN -45%). Temperature was also below average (TEMP -2.1°C), but RADPAR was slightly above average (+2%). BIOMSS (-14%) was below average.

The South region received a total of 66 mm of rain, the largest departure (-53%) among the 3 regions. The temperature (-3.0°C) was below average but RADPAR was above average (+5%). The combination of agro-climatic indicators resulted in a decrease of the BIOMSS index by 20%. The precipitation deficit in this region could have a negative impact on winter crops grown in this region.

Figure 3.23 Kazakhstan’s crop condition, October 2020-January 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c).  Maximum VCI

(d). Rainfall Index 

(e). Temperature Index   

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                               (g) NDVI profiles

Table 3.37 Kazakhstan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, October 2020-January 2021

Table 3.38 Kazakhstan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2020-January 2021