Kenya experiences two rainy seasons: The long rains last from March to May and the short rains from October to December. Maize can be grown during the long and short rains, whereas wheat is grown during the long rains only.  This report for the monitoring period from October 2020 to January 2021 covers the short rain season and the harvest of long rain maize and wheat. Short rain maize was sown in October and November.

At the national scale, precipitation was 391 mm, 4% below average. Rainfall was above average in southwestern Kenya, but below average in the East and the North. The weather was slightly cooler and PADPAR was close to the 15YA (TEMP -0.4°C, RADPAR -1%). BIOMSS was 9% lower than average. The NDVI development graph at the national level hovered around the 5YA trends throughout the monitoring period. According to the NDVI clusters and the map of NDVI profiles, only 21.4% of the regions showed better-than-average crop growth conditions, and they were mainly concentrated in the southwest. This was in agreement with the maximum VCI graph which shows the VCIx in most zones between 0.8-1.0, except for some areas in the central region. The national average VCI value reached 0.87 and the cropped arable land fraction increased by 2% as compared to the 5YA. The national crop condition is assessed as average.

Regional analysis

In the Eastern coastal region, the rainfall was lower than the 15YA (-20%), which resulted in a slightly decreased estimate for biomass (-1%) while temperatures were slightly higher (+0.2°C）and sunshine was normal (+1%). The NDVI values stayed below the 5YA with slight fluctuations throughout the reporting period. VCIx reached 0.84 with CALF up by 6%. Crop conditions were normal for both livestock and crops in the coastal areas. Average crop production can be expected.

The Highland agriculture zone recorded 398 mm of rain, which was close to the 15YA (-2%). Lower temperatures (TEMP -0.4°C) resulted in lower biomass (-13%). The NDVI profile was near average during the whole reporting period. The maximum VCIx value was recorded at 0.87. In this area, cropped arable land fraction increased by 2% as compared to the 5YA. In general, the crop conditions were normal.

Agroclimatic indicators in the Northern region with sparse vegetation were similar to those in the Eastern coastal region. Precipitation was below average (RAIN -20%). Temperature (TEMP +0.1°C), sunshine (RADPAR -1%) and BIOMSS (-6%) indicate average conditions. The NDVI development curve stayed above the 5YA during the first two months while it was below the 5YA in December and January. The maximum VCI was high at 0.84 with a comparative increase in CALF (+11%). Overall, the CropWatch indicators point at normal conditions.

South-west of Kenya includes the districts Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru, and Embu which are major producers of long rain wheat and maize. The total amount of rainfall recorded during this period reached 518 mm (19% above average). Temperatures were cooler (TEMP -1°C) and solar radiation (RADPAR +2%) was near average. Estimated biomass (BIOMSS -7%) was slightly lower. NDVI trended above average throughout the entire monitoring period.  CALF was very close to average and VCIx was at 0.84. All in all, crop conditions were normal.

Figure 3.24 Kenya's crop condition, October 2020-January 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                             (c) Maximum VCI

   (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                 (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall                                                                             (g) Time series temperature

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, The eastern coastal region (left), The Highland agriculture zone (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

Table 3.39. Kenya's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020-January 2021

Table 3.40. Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, October 2020-January 2021