Maize is the most important crop grown in Mexico. In the rainfed production regions of the country, maize reached maturity in September and October. Sowing of irrigated maize started in September. Its main production region is in the northwest. Winter wheat sowing began in November. Both soybean and rice reached maturity by the end of this reporting period.

Crop conditions were below average from October to January according to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI. The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators showed that TEMP (+0.2°C) and RADPAR (+1%) were close to average, but RAIN was down (-18%) and BIOMSS decreased by 19% as compared to the average, which was unfavorable to crop growth, as indicated by a relatively low value of maximum VCI (0.73). CALF decreased by 10%, compared with the previous 5-year average. According its spatial pattern, maximum VCI greatly varied within the country. The mean value of VCI in the south and east was significantly higher than that in the north. Most of the southern and eastern regions had VCI values higher than 0.8, whereas extremely low values (less than 0.5) occurred in the North (Chihuahua and Sonora). The maximum VCI in other regions of Mexico was moderate, with values between 0.5 and 1.0. As shown in the spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map, only about 27.6% of the total acreage was slightly above average during the entire monitoring period, while the rest of the areas had below-average crop growth. The areas with above-average crop growth were mainly distributed in Guerrero, Veracruz, Yucatan, Chiapas and Michoacan.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agroecological regions. They include the Arid and semi-arid region (128), Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (131). Regional analyses of crop conditions can provide more detail for the production situation in Mexico.

The Arid and semi-arid region located in northern and central Mexico accounts for about half of the cropland of the country. The maximum VCI was relatively low with a value of 0.53 and CALF decreased by 27%. According to the NDVI development graph, the growth of crops was lower than the average of last 5 years during the October to January period. In terms of agroclimatic conditions, both TEMP and RADPAR were close to the average, but the RAIN decreased significantly, which was reduced by 72% compared with the 15YA average, and there was a significant decline in biomass, by 27%. On the whole, crop conditions were unfavorable for this region, due to the lack of precipitation and the low CALF.

The Humid tropics with summer rainfall region is located in southeastern Mexico. The agro-climatic conditions showed that RAIN was above average (+36%), TEMP was 0.2°C warmer and RADPAR was down by 7%. As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to average from October to January. The Maximum VCI (0.93) and suitable climatic conditions confirmed favorable crop conditions in this agroecological region.

The Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains is situated in central Mexico. Crop conditions were below average from October to January. The agroclimatic condition showed that TEMP and RADPAR were close to the average, with a small increase of 0.2°C and 4%, while RAIN and BIOMSS were below average by 62% and13% respectively. The region had a relatively low VCIx of 0.82.

The Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains region is located in southern Mexico. During the monitoring period, crop conditions were below average in this region, as shown by the NDVI profiles. Agroclimatic conditions showed that RAIN was significantly below average (-34%) while TEMP and RADPAR were near average (+0.3°C and +1%). and BIOMSS decreased by 12%. In terms of agronomic conditions, CALF was close to the average, decreased by 1% and the VCIx in these areas was 0.86, which confirmed moderate crop conditions in this region.

Figure 3.29 Mexico’s crop condition, October 2020 - January 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                      (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                          (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                     (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right))

Table 3.47 Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, October 2020 - January 2021

Table 3.48 Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2020 - January 2021