The monsoon rains in Myanmar ended in October and the country entered the cool season in early November. The main rice was harvested between October and December. The planting of second rice started in November. Maize and wheat were also planted between October and December. Crop conditions were below average during this monitoring period.

Compared to the 15YA, RAIN (-10%) was lower while TEMP (+0.4°C) was higher, and RADPAR was average. As a result, potential cumulative biomass (BIOMSS) was 27% below average, while the utilization of cropland was close to the 5YA. NDVI values were slightly below average during the entire period except for mid-November. The maximum VCI during this period was 0.89.

A majority of the country’s croplands suffered from slightly below-average crop conditions during the period. Negative departures were mainly observed for the Central plain and the the Delta and Southern Coast region, including Regions of Mandalay, Magwe, South of Sagaing, Bago, Yangon, Ayeyarwady, Thanintaryi and States of Mon and Kayin. 25.7% of the cropland showed positive NDVI departures during the monitoring period, which were mainly located in the Hills region, including States of Shan and scattered areas over Sagaing Region and Bago Region. The maximum VCI was less than 0.8 in the central dry zone. Higher values were observed in the other regions.

Regional analysis

Three sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are the Central plain, the Hills and the Delta and Southern Coast regions.

The Central Plain had a marked rainfall deficit (RAIN -35%), with RADPAR up by 2% and TEMP up by 0.8°C compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS was 35% lower than the 15YA, which was the largest decrease among the three sub-national regions.  CALF showed that 97% of the cropland was fully utilized, but it was 1% below the 5YA. NDVI was consistently below the 5YA level during the whole period. The VCIx was 0.89. Crop conditions for this region were slightly below average.

The Hills region had an average RAIN (338 mm), 1% below the 15YA. RADPAR was comparable to the average while TEMP increased by 0.2°C. BIOMSS was 25% below the 15YA. The cropland was almost fully used (CALF 99%). The NDVI values were near the 5YA during the whole period. The VCIx was 0.93. Crop conditions are assessed as close to the 5YA level.

The Delta and Southern Coast region had the highest RAIN (352 mm) compared with the other two sub-national regions, but it was still 5% below the 15YA. TEMP increased by 0.2°C and RADPAR decreased by 5%. BIOMSS was 20% below the 15YA. CALF was comparable to the 5YA and VCIx was 0.91. The NDVI values were close to the 5YA except for early October, which was far below the average. Crop conditions in this region were below average.

Figure 3.30 Myanmar crop condition, October 2020 – January 2021

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Rainfall Profile

(d) Temperature Profile

(e)  Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) in Myanmar

(f)  Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Central Plain region

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Hills region

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Delta and Southern Coast region

Table 3.49 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020 – January 2021

Table 3.50 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2020 – January 2021