This report covers the first half of the rainy season in Mozambique. Rice and maize planting started in October in the south and gradually progressed northwards, where planting was completed in December. Wheat planting started in January only. The onset of the monsoon rains was delayed. It reached average levels in mid-December only.  For the whole country, rainfall recorded a decrease of about 8% compared to the average of the past fifteen years. For the same period, while the temperature increased in 0.3°C, the radiation recorded a decrease of 1%. Combined, these elements contributed to the decrease in the total biomass production by about 3%.

The national development graph based on NDVI indicates below-average crop conditions during the entire monitoring period, mostly influenced by the low rainfall registered in the north of the country, especially in the northern coast and northern high-altitude areas. As indicated by the maximum VCIx, the worst crop condition was found in the northern Zambézia, Nampula, and southern Cabo Delgado provinces, where crops were affected by drought during the early growing stage. Despite these conditions, the NDVI profiles show that crop conditions in approximately 28% of the cropped area were favorable during the entire period.

The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was near the average of the past five years and the current maximum VCIx was 0.82. During this monitoring period, poor conditions were observed for the north coast, whereas for the other regions, they were close to average.

Regional analysis

According to the cropping system, topography, and climate, CropWatch has subdivided Mozambique into five agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Buzi Basin, Northern High-altitude Areas, Low Zambezi River Basin, Northern Coast, and the Southern Region.

At the regional level, the crop conditions development graph based on NDVI indicates below-average crop conditions in the northern high-altitude areas and northern coast. In these regions, the crop conditions were mostly influenced by the significant drop in rainfall in about 22% and 39% for the northern high-altitude areas and northern coast, respectively. Increases in temperature varying from 0.4°C to 0.5°C were observed, which further accelerate the soil moisture loss. The radiation in the northern high-altitude areas increased by 3% while in the northern coast, it was near average. The CALF in the northern high-altitude areas increased by 6% and the maximum recorded VCIx was 0.87. For the northern coast, the CALF recorded a drop of 6%. The drop in CALF and the lowest VCIx values in this zone indicate an unfavourable crop condition with below average crop outputs.

In the Buzi basin region, the crop conditions were near the 5YA during most of the monitoring period. However, the basin recorded the highest increase in rainfall compared to other regions (+40%), with lower temperatures (-0.3°C) and radiation (-8%). Flooding happened in some areas over the basin caused by the intense rains in late January. Even though, CALF increased by about 4% and the maximum recorded VCIx was 0.95. Crop outputs in the region is expected to be at or above average.

Variations in crop conditions were recorded in the Lower Zambezi River basin and Southern region. In these regions, favourable crop conditions were recorded in late January, mostly influenced by the increases in rainfall by about 13% in both regions. In these regions, the temperature also increased by about 0.2°C and 0.3°C for the Lower Zambezi River basin and Southern region, respectively. While the radiation in the Lower Zambezi River basin increased by 1%, in the Southern region it was 5% below the 15YA. The agronomic indicators for these regions reveal increases in CALF by 6% and 7% and a better VCIx recorded was 0.93 and 0.96 in the Lower Zambezi River basin and Southern region, respectively.

Figure 3.32. Mozambique's crop condition, October 2020-January 2021

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（a）Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                               (e) NDVI profiles

(f) National time-series rainfall profiles                                                  (g) National time-series temperature profiles

(h) Buzi basin time-series rainfall profiles                                              (i) Mozambique South time-series rainfall profiles

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Buzi basin (left), and Northern high-altitude areas (right)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Lower Zambezi River basin (left), and Northern coast region (right)

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Southern region

Table 3.53 Mozambique’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020 – January 2021

Table 3.54 Mozambique’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2020 – January 2021