This reporting period covers the planting and vegetative growth of winter wheat, as well as the harvest of maize and rice in October. Crop conditions were generally favorable from October 2020 to January 2021.

Nationwide, RAIN was close to the average, while TEMP (-0.7°C) and RADPAR (-2%) were below the 15YA. Three agro-ecological regions had above average rainfall during this reporting period: The Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind (+23%), Northern Punjab (+1%) and Northern highlands (+22%).  Temperature and radiation were below average in the three regions. Though the combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in a BIOMSS decrease by 28% compared to the recent five-year average, higher-than-normal rainfall benefited the germination and early growth of winter wheat. 

Crop conditions were above the average of the last five years starting in October, as shown by the NDVI development graph at the national level. Only 5% of the cropped areas were significantly below average, sporadically located in the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sindh zone.  In addition, 25% of the cropped areas were slightly below average mainly in the southwest of Sind, some areas of Northern highlands and Northern highlands.  Crop condition slightly decreased to below average in late January.  However, most of the Punjab and the lower Indus river basin, the two major wheat producing areas, had above-average condition according to the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles. The national average of VCIx (0.86) was above the average of the last five years. CALF increased by 15%. Winter wheat prospects are promising.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Northern highlands, Northern Punjab region and the Lower Indus river basin in South Punjab and Sind.

In the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind, RAIN was above average by 23%, while TEMP was below average by 0.2°C and RADPAR was lower than average as well. BIOMSS was down by 11% as compared to the recent five-year average. In late January, crop conditions based on NDVI development profiles were below average. The CALF at 71% was higher than previous five years average by 15%. VCIx at 0.83 indicated favorable crop condition. Generally, crop prospects are favorable.

RAIN was almost close to average in the Northern highland region. RADPAR (-3%) and TEMP (-0.9°C) were lower. As a result, estimated BIOMSS decreased by 30%. The NDVI development graph showed close-to-average crop conditions in this reporting period. VCIx with 0.87 indicated better conditions than in the previous five years. CALF was at 53%, a large increase over the recent five-year average by 27%. Crops have good prospects.

Northern Punjab is the main agricultural region in Pakistan. It recorded an above-average RAIN (+22%). TEMP departure was -0.8°C, and the RADPAR was below average by 4%. The resulting BIOMSS decreased by 42%. Crop condition assessed through NDVI based crop development profiles showed average values in early October. It subsequently dropped to below average in November and increased to above average in December, and dropped back to below average in January.  The CALF reached 84%, which was 10% above the previous five years average.  VCIx was relatively high at 0.85. Overall, the crop production potential for the region is high.

Figure 3.34 Pakistan crop condition, January - May 2021

a) Phenology of major crops

b) NDVI profile                                             c) Time series rainfall profile         

d) Maximum VCI

e)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA                       f) NDVI profile

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind)

h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Northern highlands)

i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Northern Punjab)

Table 3.57 Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, October 2020- January 2021

  Table 3.58 Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, October 2020- January 2021