This monitoring period covers the maize harvest in October and the sowing as well as the growing period of winter wheat. On a national scale, RAIN (-3%), RADPAR (-14%) and BIOMSS (-11%) were below average and the temperatures were 0.5°C higher compared to the average of the past 15 years. As shown by the rainfall development graph, precipitation was above the highest level of the past 15 years in mid-October, which hampered maize harvest and winter wheat planting. Rainfall conditions returned to below-average levels in November. The negative departures of NDVI shown in the crop condition development graph and the spatial distribution of NDVI in December and January are most likely due to snow or cloud cover in the satellite images.

In terms of agricultural conditions, the proportion of arable land planted was close to 100% and VCIx reached 0.95. In general, the crop harvesting, and planting periods were delayed by excessive precipitation, which was not conducive to the initial growth phase of winter crops and requires close attention in the next monitoring period.

Regional analysis

Four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are examined more closely below. They include the Northern oats and potatoes areas (the northern half of west Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria), the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic sea), the Central rye and potatoes area (Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area from southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Subcarpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders. The listed administrative units correspond to the voivodeships.

Compared with the average of the same period of the past 15 years, RAIN in Northern oats and potatoes area, Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area and Central rye and potatoes area was 10%, 7% and 5% lower, RADPAR was 19%, 17% and 14% lower, and potential biomass levels were 12%, 12% and 10% lower, respectively, whereas the temperatures were 0.9°C, 0.8°C and 0.5°C above the 15YA, respectively. Despite of excessive moisture in mid-October, CALF in all three sub-regions was close to 100% and the VCIx also reached 0.96, 0.92 and 0.95, respectively. The crop growing conditions were close to normal. Different from the other three subregions, the precipitation and temperatures in the Southern wheat and sugarbeet area were 6% and 0.3°C higher than the average of the past 15 years, but RADPAR was 12% lower and the potential biomass was 13% lower. CALF in this subregion also reached 100%, and the VCIx was 0.99.

Figure 3.36 Poland’s crop condition, October 2020 - January 2021

Figure 3.25a. Poland phenology of major crops

Figure 3.25b. Poland national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN, TEMP, comparing the October 2020 to January 2021 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.25c. Poland maximum VCI for October 2020 to January 2021 by pixel

Figure 3.25d. Poland spatial NDVI patterns up to January 2021 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right).

Figure 3.25e. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.25f. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.61 Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020 - January 2021

Table 3.62 Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2020 - January 2021