This monitoring period covers the completion of the sowing of winter crops in October. It was followed by early vegetative growth and subsequent dormancy period during winter.

At the national level, the data show that in early October the NDVI was below the 5-year average. But from late October to mid-November, it was equal to the 5-year average. In mid-November until the end of the monitoring period, NDVI was below the 5-year average.

Rainfall in October was lower than in the previous year and below the 15-year average.  At the end of October, precipitation had raised to the last year's level and the 15-year average. In early November, it dipped below average and subsequently increased to above last year's average. In December precipitation dropped below the 15-year average. In January, it equaled the 15-year average and was just above the level of the previous year.

Temperatures in October were close to the 15-year maximum.  In November, they dropped to the 15-year average, but in late January, they increased to close to the 15-year maximum.

The main winter crop production regions mostly experienced negative NDVI departures with a VCI below 0.8. Due to the shortage of rainfall, there was a delay in the germination and emergence of winter wheat, which is reflected in lower NDVI values in the main regions of winter crop production. Conditions for winter wheat in Russia were generally unfavorable due to below-average precipitation. However, if precipitation returns to average levels during the next reporting period, winter wheat will be able to recover.

Regional analysis

In South Caucasus, the amount of precipitation was 15% below the 15YA. The temperatures were 0.8°C above the 15YA. RADPAR increased slightly by 1%. Biomass increased by 6%. Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased greatly and was 42% lower than the 5-year average.  VCIx was at 0.54. NDVI from the beginning of October to the end of December stayed below the respective 5YA. These parameters indicate unfavorable conditions for the South Caucasus.

In North Caucasus, the amount of precipitation decreased by 18% relative to the 15YA. Temperature increased slightly by 0.4°C compared to the 15-year average. The RADPAR value was 8% lower than the 15-year average. The biomass value increased by 12%. Cropped area increased by 1% compared to the 5-year average. VCI was 0.93. NDVI value during this period was well below the 5-year average. Overall, conditions in this region were below average.

In Central Russia, temperature decreased by 0.5°C (1.2%) compared to the 15-year average, and the amount of precipitation decreased significantly by 15%. RADPAR decreased by 9%.  Despite the decrease in RADPAR combined with less precipitation, biomass increased by 11% as compared to the 15-year average. Cropped area increased slightly by 1% compared to the 5-year average. The VCI index was 0.93. In October, NDVI was equal to its previous year's value. In November, NDVI was equal to the 5-year average, but declined significantly in mid-December. Between mid-December and the end of January, NDVI was below the 5-year average. In general, the situation in this region is unfavorable.

In the Central black soils region, the temperature during this period increased by 0.2°C compared to the 15YA. The amount of precipitation was 11% less than the 15-year average, and RADPAR decreased by 2%. The amount of biomass decreased by 6% due to lower precipitation and RADPAR. Cropped area was reduced by 30% compared to the 5-year average. VCI was 0.67. NDVI was mainly below the 5-year average. Conditions for winter wheat establishment were not favorable. 

In Middle Volga region, temperature (-4.2°C) and precipitation (-27%) were below the 15YA. However, the value of RADPAR increased by 9%. Biomass increased by 11% compared to the 15-year average. Cropped area was 4% lower than the 5-year average. VCI was 0.77. For most of the period, NDVI was mainly below the 5-year average. Conditions for winter wheat were below average for this region. 

In the Ural and western Volga region, precipitation decreased by 19% and temperature increased by 1°C compared to the 15-year average. RADPAR was equal to the 15-year average.Biomass increased by 15% compared to the 15-year average.CALF was 25% lower than the 5-year average. The VCI was 0.66. NDVI was close to the 5-year average and to the level of the previous year.  Conditions for winter wheat were below average for this region.

In Eastern Siberia, precipitation decreased by 10% and air temperature by 0.4°C compared to the 15YA. RADPAR decreased by 6%. Biomass decreased by 3% relative to the 15-year average. Cropped area was 6% lower than the 5-year average. VCI was 0.87. Throughout October, NDVI was below the 5-year average, but in November NDVI was equal to the 5-year average and equal to the previous year's value. Between December and the end of January, the NDVI was just below the 5-year high. The area of winter crops is insignificant in this region, therefore its agroclimatic conditions will not affect winter crop production in the Russia Federation.

In Middle Siberia, precipitation increased by 3% compared to the 15-year average, and average temperatures remained unchanged. RADPAR decreased by 7%. Biomass was 6% lower than the 15-year average. Cropped area was 61% higher than the 5-year average. Middle Siberia had the maximum increase in cropped area during this monitoring period. The VCI was 0.99. Between October and November, NDVI was equal to the 5-year average, but in early December NDVI exceeded the 5-year maximum. In mid-January, the NDVI was equal to the value of the previous year. The area of winter crops is insignificant in this region therefore its agroclimatic conditions will not affect winter crop production in the Russia Federation.

In Western Siberia, precipitation decreased by 15% relative to the 5-year average, and air temperatures decreased by 0.1%. RADPAR was 2% lower than the 5-year average. In spite of the decrease of these indicators, the value of biomass increased by 3%. Cropped area land fraction increased by 28%. VCI was 0.96. NDVI value was mainly close to the 5-year average, except mid-October and early November, when it was above the 5-year average. The area of winter crops is insignificant in this region therefore its agroclimatic conditions will not affect winter crop production in the Russia Federation.

Figure 3.38 Russia’s crop conditions October 2020-January 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus and Northern Caucasus)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia and Central black soils area)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga and Ural and western Volga region)

(i)                Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Eastern Siberia and the Middle Siberia

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Siberia)

(h) Rainfall index

(i)                Temperature index

Table 3.65 Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions. current season’s values and departure from 15YA. October-January 2021

Table 3.66 Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions. current season’s values and departure from 5YA. October-January 2021