In October, at the beginning of this reporting period, maize and rice harvests were reaching the completion, while winter wheat planting was in progress. NDVI was slightly lower than the five-year average during the monitoring period, except in late December and early January. Both temperature and radiation were above average (TEMP +1.3°C, RADPAR +1%), but rainfall was below average (RAIN -25%). The combined agroclimatic conditions resulted in a slightly above-average potential biomass (BIOMSS +2%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 5% and the maximum VCI (VCIx) was 0.75. 

The spatial NDVI patterns almost exactly correspond to the spatial distribution of VCIx. NDVI was close to or slightly above average on 20% of the croplands (marked in blue), mostly in western and southern parts, including the provinces of Edirne, Tekirdag, Bursa, Balisesir, Eskisehir, Afyon, Manisa, Urfa, and Malatya. NDVI was below average during the whole monitoring period on 28.7% of the croplands marked in light green. These areas are mainly located in the middle and southeastern parts including the provinces of Konya, Ankara, Kirsehir, Nevsehir, Mardin, Diyarbakir, and Siir, indicating below-average crop conditions. It is worth noting that the maps indicated a sharp decline for 51.3% of the cropland in middle to late January, which might be due to snowcover. Precipitation was above 15YA maximum in mid January. The dry conditions in October and November may have delayed crop establishment. But the ample precipitation that occurred in January may help alleviate the conditions for winter wheat. 

Regional analysis

The regional analysis covers four agro-ecological zones (AEZs): The Black Sea region, Central Anatolia region, Eastern Anatolia region and Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland region. 

In the Black Sea region, the NDVI was slightly above average only from early December to early January, while below average during the rest of the monitoring period. Radiation and temperature were well above average (RADPAR +5%, TEMP+ 1.7°C), and rainfall was below average (RAIN -36%), resulting in a slight increase of biomass (+10%). VCIx reached 0.87 and CALF was down by 4%, indicating below average crop conditions.

The Central Anatolian region had below average NDVI during the monitoring period except from middle December to early January. Both radiation and temperature were above average (RADPAR +2%, TEMP+ 1.4°C), while rainfall was below average (RAIN -35%). The potential biomass production was above average (BIOMSS +10%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was above average by 8% and VCIx was 0.69.

In the Eastern Anatolian region, the average NDVI was below 0.25 from November to January. This zone also experienced a precipitation shortage (RAIN -23%). Weather was relatively warm (TEMP +1.0°C) while sunshine was good (RADPAR +2%). Biomass was slightly down (BIOMSS -14%). 

As shown by the NDVI profile in the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland region, NDVI was slightly below average during the whole monitoring period except from middle December to early January. The rainfall was below average (RAIN -12%). It was the smallest departure from the average among of the four AEZs, while the radiation and temperature were 2% below and 1.4°C above the average (RADPAR -2%, TEMP +1.4°C). BIOMSS and CALF increased by 2% and 11% compared to their respective average. The VCIx was 0.83. Crop production prospects are estimated to be fair to normal. 

Figure 3.40 Turkey’s crop condition, October 2020-January 2021

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Time series rainfall profile

(d) Time series temperature profile                            (e)  Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region (left) and Central Anatolia region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region (left) and Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region (right))

Table 3.69 Turkey's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2020-January 2021

Table 3.70 Turkey's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2020-January 2021